Poll: Kari Lake's Lead Is Increasing in Arizona

Less than a month ago, the Trafalgar Group released a poll showing that Republican Kari Lake was leading Democrat Katie Hobbs in the Arizona gubernatorial race. This lead was very slight, of just 0.7 percent, but it was telling nonetheless. The polling group has since released another round out of Arizona, as it has done in other key battleground states, and Lake is now leading by a much more significant margin. 

Lake now enjoys support from a majority of like voters, at 50 percent. Hobbs' lead has gone down ever so slightly, bu 0.2 percent from August, to 45.6 percent. 

ARIZONA GOVERNOR POLLING TRENDS By Trafalgar Group

August 27:
(R) Kari Lake 46.5% (+0.7)
(D) Katie Hobbs 45.8%

September 15:
(R) Kari Lake 50% (+4.4)
(D) Katie Hobbs 45.6%

? 3.7 point swing towards Kari Lake pic.twitter.com/kJ2VEYflm7

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 18, 2022

The poll was conducted September 14-17, with 1,080 likely voters. With a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points, Lake's lead is well ahead of that this time.

New @trafalgar_group #AZSen #Poll (9/14-17) shows race tightening w/ #Kelly clinging to razor thin lead #azpol

46.6% @CaptMarkKelly
45.4% @bgmasters
2.7% @Victor4Senate
5.3% Und

See Report: https://t.co/LgmMIx8hVx pic.twitter.com/arUAoQ8Zxb

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 18, 2022

The Lake-Hobbs race is considered a "Toss-Up" all around. RealClearPolitics has Lake up with an average of +1. 

The poll also looked into the U.S. Senate race between Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly and his Republican opponent, Blake Masters. Although Kelly is still in the lead, as he was in the late August poll, his lead has slightly lessened. 

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2022 ELECTIONS POLLING

Last month, Kelly was up 47.6 percent to Masters' 44.3 percent, with a lead of 3.3 percent. Kelly is now just up by 1.2 percent, with 46.6 percent to Master's 45.4 percent. A significant 5.3 percent is still undecided. 

?? ARIZONA POLL By Trafalgar

SEN
(D) Mark Kelly 47% (+2)
(R) Blake Masters 45%

GOV
(R) Kari Lake 50% (+4)
(D) Katie Hobbs 46%

SOS
(R) Mark Finchem 48% (+7)
(D) Adrian Fontes 41%

AG
(R) Abraham Hamadeh 50% (+9)
(D) Kris Mayes 41%

1,080 LV | 09/14-17https://t.co/bSHLA48MlN pic.twitter.com/avVSXQMAnb

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 18, 2022

The poll also showed other Republican candidates in the lead, for secretary of state and attorney general. 

"Trafalgar" was trending on Sunday as a result of the poll's release.