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Poll: Kari Lake's Lead Is Increasing in Arizona

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  September 19, 2022 2:30 PM

Less than a month ago, the Trafalgar Group released a poll showing that Republican Kari Lake was leading Democrat Katie Hobbs in the Arizona gubernatorial race. This lead was very slight, of just 0.7 percent, but it was telling nonetheless. The polling group has since released another round out of Arizona, as it has done in other key battleground states, and Lake is now leading by a much more significant margin. 

Lake now enjoys support from a majority of like voters, at 50 percent. Hobbs' lead has gone down ever so slightly, bu 0.2 percent from August, to 45.6 percent. 

The poll was conducted September 14-17, with 1,080 likely voters. With a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points, Lake's lead is well ahead of that this time.

The Lake-Hobbs race is considered a "Toss-Up" all around. RealClearPolitics has Lake up with an average of +1. 

The poll also looked into the U.S. Senate race between Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly and his Republican opponent, Blake Masters. Although Kelly is still in the lead, as he was in the late August poll, his lead has slightly lessened. 

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Last month, Kelly was up 47.6 percent to Masters' 44.3 percent, with a lead of 3.3 percent. Kelly is now just up by 1.2 percent, with 46.6 percent to Master's 45.4 percent. A significant 5.3 percent is still undecided. 

The poll also showed other Republican candidates in the lead, for secretary of state and attorney general. 

"Trafalgar" was trending on Sunday as a result of the poll's release.