Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) has been considered one of the more vulnerable incumbents, but he's also not one to be underestimated. When he was first elected in 2010, it was because he beat an incumbent, then Sen. Russ Feingold, a Democrat. He beat him again in a 2016 rematch, too. Now, he's going up against Mandela Barnes, the state's lieutenant governor. While polls have shown Johnson with only a narrow lead, or even Barnes in the lead, there's one recent poll that can't be ignored when it comes to how good it is for Johnson.
On Wednesday, the Marquette University Law School released its most recent poll, which examined the race between Johnson and Barnes, among other races and issues. The poll showed that Johnson has a lead of 48 percent with registered voters, to Barnes' 47 percent. The senator also has a 1 percentage point lead when it comes to voters "absolutely certain" to vote, of 49 percent to 48 percent. The most pronounced lead is among those "very likely" to vote, where it's 49 percent for Johnson to Barnes' 47 percent.
In Senate race: Among all registered voters, it is Johnson 48% and Barnes 47%. Among those who are either certain or “very likely” to vote, it is Johnson 49% and Barnes 47%, Among only those “absolutely certain” to vote, it is Johnson 49%, Barnes 48%. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) September 14, 2022
WISCONSIN SENATE POLLING
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 15, 2022
Marquette:
(R) Ron Johnson 49% (+1)
(D) Mandela Barnes 48%
8 point shift towards Johnson in a Month
NRCC (R):
(R) Ron Johnson 49% (+4)
(D) Mandela Barnes 45%https://t.co/GrXmVSG4s4 pic.twitter.com/G72mwwWHmx
It's true that the lead is only 1 percentage point, 2 at the most, and is within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent for registered voters and plus or minus 4.9 percent for likely voters. It's also worth emphasizing, though, that Johnson has seen an incredible shift.
Last month, among registered voters, Barnes led with 52 percent to Johnson's 45 percent. Among likely voters, he led 51 percent to Johnson's 44 percent. That's a shift of at least 7 percentage points, 8 when it comes to registered voters.
That August poll was conducted almost immediately after Barnes officially won the primary to challenge Johnson.
The poll also asked voters about the gubernatorial race between Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) and Republican challenger Tim Michels. Although not as tight, it's still a close race and is getting closer. Evers leads by 3 percentage points among likely voters, with 47 percent to Michels' 44 percent. Last month, he led 48 percent to Michels' 44 percent. It's even closer among registered voters, with Evers leading 44 percent to Michels' 43 percent. Last month he led 45 percent to Michels' 43 percent among such voters.
Evers is also among the least popular governors in the country, according to data from Morning Consult released in July.
Who is America's most popular governor? With 74% approval ratings, Wyoming Republican Mark Gordon and Vermont Republican Phil Scott top the list. https://t.co/ScFFj3iV86 pic.twitter.com/GHMUUtroQJ
— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) July 19, 2022
This most recent poll was conducted September 6-11, with 801 registered Wisconsin voters.
Forecasters differ on how they regard Johnson's race, with Cook Political Report only seeing it as a "Toss-Up," while Sabato's Crystal Ball says it's "Lean Republican" and Inside Elections says it's "Tilt Republican." Decision Desk HQ currently has the race at "Likely Republican," and gives Johnson a 93 percent chance of winning.
Evers' race is across the board regarded as a "Toss-Up." He was first elected in 2018, when he beat out incumbent Gov. Scott Walker, 49.5 percent to 48.4 percent.
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