The USA Today/Suffolk poll that was released on Sunday has gotten plenty of attention for how just 38 percent approve of President Joe Biden and 28 percent approve of Vice President Kamala Harris. This is a particularly low approval level for the president, but it's not a fluke. Even a CNN poll, released on Monday, shows that the president is underwater, with 48 percent of adults approving of the job he is doing and 52 percent disapproving. This is the first time that a larger portion of respondents disapprove than approve of Biden since CNN has been polling respondents about his presidency.
The takeaway, as highlighted in a headline from Jennifer Agiesta and Ariel Edwards-Levy, in their writeup for CNN is that "Majority of Americans say Biden isn't paying attention to nation's most important issues."
When respondents were asked whether they thought Biden "has had the right priorities" or he "hasn't paid enough attention to most important problems," 42 percent answered the former, while 58 percent did the latter.
Here's how Agiesta and Edwards-Levy examine it further in their writing, with added emphasis:
The nation's top concerns -- like its views on many things -- are sharply divided by party. Among Republicans, roughly half (51%) choose the economy as their top concern, with immigration (23%) and national security (13%) far behind. Just 4% of Republicans call coronavirus the nation's most important problem. Independents likewise rate the economy tops (38%), followed by coronavirus (18%), immigration (13%) and climate (11%). Among Democrats, though, 34% name coronavirus as the top problem, followed by the economy at 20%, about even with the climate at 18%. Another 8% say immigration is their top issue. Just 3% of Democrats cite national security as their top issue, with Republicans similarly unlikely to be focused on climate change, racial injustice or education.
The connection between perception of the top issue and views on whether Biden has had the right priorities is strong, and even among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, the share saying Biden has had the wrong priorities climbs to 42% among those who call the economy the top problem, compared with 17% among those who consider the coronavirus the top problem.
Going back to Biden's disapproval rating, the writeup ought to highlight more how this is the first time Biden is underwater. Agiesta and Edwards-Levy do include truly revealing details, though, which is to do with how the decrease in support comes from Biden's own supporters. Emphasis is added:
All told, 48% of adults approve of the way Biden is handling the job while 52% disapprove. Intensity within those ratings breaks sharply against the President. The share saying they strongly approve of Biden's performance has dropped to just 15%, down from 34% in April. Although CNN does not ask strength of approval in every poll, that number never dipped below 20% during the presidencies of either Barack Obama or Donald Trump.
In the new poll, 36% say they strongly disapprove of Biden's handling of the presidency, and that figure is about the same as it was when CNN last asked strength of approval in April, suggesting the drop in approval over the last few months has been driven more by disappointment among his original supporters than an expansion of the group that started off strongly opposed to his presidency.
This is huge, considering how often we're reminded that at least Biden hasn't fared as poorly as former President Donald Trump has.
Polls consistently show pluralities of respondents who "strongly disapprove" of the president.
Polls are becoming increasingly relevant now that the mid-term elections are less than a year away. The poll shows that respondents still give the Democratic congressional candidate an edge, by 49 percent, compared to the Republican candidate, who gets 44 percent.
It might not be that simple, though, as the writeup explains:
...That's about the same as the Democratic advantage in CNN polling in November 2009 (49% Democrats to 43% Republicans). Ongoing congressional redistricting could alter how those preferences translate into actual congressional seats, but recent elections suggest Democrats typically win a smaller share of seats than they do overall votes.
Of course, for the 2010 mid-term elections, then President Barack Obama lost a historic amount of seats. Data from the American Presidency Project, which is through UC Santa Barbara, shows that the 63 seats that Democrats lost in the House that year was the highest amount since when Democrats lost 83 seats in the House for the 1938 election, when then President Franklin D. Roosevelt was in office.
Further, other polls, such as the Emerson College poll I covered last weekend, shows the Republican candidate has an advantage, with 49 percent compared to 42 percent for the Democrat.
Republicans in Congress are also given higher remarks than Democrats in Congress according to the USA Today/Suffolk poll, with 35 percent approving of Republicans and 29 percent approving of Democrats. Congress overall does fare particularly poorly, with just 12 percent approving.
While time will tell how many seats Democrats lose, and if the Biden presidency will be a historic one in that regard, things are not looking good for the president. As a matter of history, the president's party tends to lose seats during the midterms, especially when the president has as poor an approval rating as Biden does.
The poll was conducted November 1-4 with 1,004 adults and a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It's worth emphasizing that the poll was conducted before the House passed the infrastructure bill. We've been told that Biden's supporters are hoping and expecting for his approval ratings to go up over such a success, but time will tell.
