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Tipsheet

New Poll Doesn't Just Carry with It Bad News for Biden, But Good News for Trump for 2024

Jeff J Mitchell/Pool Photo via AP

On Friday, Emerson College Polling released their latest poll, and it shows more bad news for President Joe Biden. A majority, at 50 percent, disapprove of the president, while 41 percent approve. In September, 46 approved and 47 percent disapproved, putting his approval ratings for that poll in September at a statistical tie. 

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Particularly foreboding for the president is that just 25 percent of Independents approve of the job Biden is doing, while 66 disapprove. In September, 37 percent approved and 56 percent disapproved. 

Emerson's poll write-up also highlighted the drop in certain demographics from February to November:

The drop in approval is greatest among Black/African-American voters, moving from 72% approval in February to 52% approval in November. Hispanic support dropped from 56% approval to 50% approval, and approval among White voters dropped from 43% to 38% approval.

The bad news continues for President Biden and Democrats. In a hypothetical re-match between Donald Trump and Biden come 2024, 45 percent would vote for Trump and 43 percent would vote for Biden. 

Looming closer is the 2022 midterms election. Republicans have an edge there too. A strong plurality, at 49 percent, would vote for the Republican candidate, while 42 percent would vote for the Democrat. Forty nine percent of Independents would vote for the Republican. 

Last night, as Landon reported, the House voted 228-206 to pass the $1.2 trillion infrastructure package. This included 13 Republicans who voted in favor, allowing the bill to pass, since six progressive Democrats voted against it, as Landon further highlighted

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The House also passed a procedural rule setting up a vote on the reconciliation bill for later this month. 

I covered in a VIP piece last night as well that many voters don't know much about the Biden agenda item, or believe it will actually help them. 

In this Emerson poll, a plurality, at 39 percent, believe that the reconciliation spending bill, also known as Build Back Better, will "make a negative impact" in their lives.  This includes 47 percent of Independents. While a majority of Democrats do think that it will "make a positive impact" in their lives, it's a rather small majority, with 56 percent. 

The poll was conducted November 3-4 with 1,000 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. 

RealClearPolitics (RCP) and FiveThirtyEight both include the Emerson poll, and their average rankings are quite similar to the Emerson poll's results. RCP has Biden at an average approval rating of 43.1 percent and disapproval rating of 50.6 percent. FiveThirtyEight has Biden's approval rating of 42.9 percent and disapproval rating of 50.4 percent. 

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