USA Today/Suffolk University just released their poll with registered voters, and it's another one that isn't too kind to President Joe Biden. In fact, his approval rating has sunk to just 38 percent, while his disapproval rating is at 59 percent. This is a new record low for Biden in this particular poll, but as Leah and Guy have covered, there have been other recent polls showing the president is consistently faring pretty poorly.
A year before the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans hold a clear early lead on the congressional ballot as President Joe Biden's approval rating sinks to a new low of 38%. https://t.co/VGvIKmBSTx
— USA TODAY (@USATODAY) November 7, 2021
That dismal approval rating, as well as historic trends, point to the 2022 midterms looking quite favorable for Republicans to take back control of one or both chambers of Congress. The president's party tends to lose seats for his first midterm election, especially when his approval ratings are as terrible as Biden's are.
Susan Page and Rick Rouan begin their write-up for USA Today by noting a "year before the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans hold a clear early lead on the congressional ballot." They went on to write that "the survey illuminates the size of the hole that Democrats need to dig out of as they look toward the elections in one year – on Nov. 8, 2022 – that will determine control of Congress and shape the second two years of Biden's term."
Republicans also have a clear advantage when it comes to the responses given by voters. When asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 46 percent said they would vote for their Republican congressional candidate while 38 percent said they would vote for the Democratic candidate.
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And while Congress has an even worse approval rating, of just 12 percent, while 75 percent disapprove, Republicans at least have an edge there too. Thirty-five percent approve of congressional Republicans while 29 percent approve of congressional Democrats.
It doesn't get any better for Biden come 2024, as 64 percent don't want him to run in 2024, including 28 percent of members of his own party. Among those who voted for Biden, 39 percent don't want him to run again.
As Guy covered last week, an NBC poll found that a plurality of Democrats, at 44 percent, don't want Biden running again.
These results for 2024 are not entirely surprising, as the survey's write-up reflects a sense of disappointment from voters. As has been the case with other polls, for months now, this poll shows that Biden is losing support among independents especially.
Page and Rouan wrote the poll "found that Biden's support had cratered among the independent voters who delivered his margin of victory over former President Donald Trump one year ago."
One key finding, they went on to note, included how "Nearly half of those surveyed, 46%, said Biden has done a worse job as president than they expected, including 16% of those who voted for him. Independents by 7-1 (44%-6%) said he's done worse, not better, than they expected."
The poll also found though that 58 percent don't want Trump to run again in 2024, with 24 percent of Republicans not wanting to do so. Page and Rouan wrote that "Biden has lost ground with voters since he won last year's election, but Trump hasn't gained it. Over the past year, two-thirds of those surveyed said their opinion of Trump hasn't changed."
They did acknowledge that "Trump continued to command more loyalty among his core supporters than Biden did, however," and went on to mention that of those who voted for Trump in 2020, 65 percent hope he will run again.
Results of this poll, as have others, found that Trump also has an edge over Biden in a 2024 hypothetical matchup, with 44 percent saying they'd vote for Trump and 40 percent saying they'd vote for Biden.
Page and Rouan also highlighted how "Biden and his party are poised for a rebound, advocates argue, after the House late Friday passed the $1.2 trillion 'hard' infrastructure bill, sending the signature measure to Biden's desk for his signature."
Yet they also made note of how Biden's other agenda item, the $1.75 trillion reconciliation spending bill does not have as much support, with 47 percent in support and 44 percent in opposition.
As the write-up mentioned:
...But they were split on the more expensive and more far-reaching Build Back Better Act now being debated in Congress. Only one in four said the bill's provisions would help them and their families.
...
The White House and its allies haven't persuaded most Americans that the measure would benefit them, at least not yet. Those surveyed were a bit more likely to say its provisions would hurt their families rather than help them, 30%-26%. Another 31% said it would not have much effect.
Those findings reflect either a failure of communication by the bill's backers or a disconnect with what voters feel they most need.
This finding is consistent with other polls, which I've written about in a VIP piece.
The poll was conducted November 3-5 with 1,000 registered voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
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