Tipsheet

The Republican House Majority Is About to Get Even Smaller As Tom Suozzi Wins Old Seat Back

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  February 13, 2024 10:45 PM

What's left of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives is about to get that much smaller, as former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi won his seat back in Tuesday's special election for New York's 3rd Congressional District. It was previously held by now former Republican Rep. George Santos, who was expelled last December. 

Decision Desk HQ called the race just before 10pm, less than an hour before the polls closed. With an estimated 73 percent of the vote in, Suozzi has 55.2 percent of the vote to Republican nominee Mazi Pilip's 44.8 percent. Suozzi actually went up against Santos in 2020, where he won with 55.9 percent of the vote to Santos' 43.5 percent.

While Republicans may have just barely won the majority as a result of the 2022 midterms, they've had no problem going after their own, even if it's led to a barely-existent majority. Not only did the House have the necessary two-thirds vote to expel Santos, but many fellow New York Republicans led the charge in kicking him out. 

Santos was only the sixth member of Congress to be expelled from the House in the country's history. He was the only Republican and the only member not convicted of a crime or who had fought for the Confederacy. Santos is, however, facing numerous charges from the United States Attorney's Office for the Eastern District of New York. A report had also been released the month before by the House Ethics Committee.

One post from Santos in response to Suozzi's win merely read "-1." Another included a picture of Reps. Nick LaLota and Anthony D'Esposito, fellow New York Republicans who had been instrumental in the effort to expel Santos. "Please thank these two gems for losing a seat in the house today!" Santos' post read.

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Santos isn't the only example, though. Last October, eight Republicans also voted with all Democrats to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) after Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) filed a motion to vacate the chair. McCarthy, who has since left Congress, announced he was resigning a few months later. The election to fill his seat will take place later this year, with a primary in March and a general election in May. 

Suozzi's win makes it a good thing that the House voted to impeach Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas when they did, also on Tuesday night, with a vote of 214-213. This was the House's second attempt, with the effort failing last week since three Republicans--Reps. Ken Buck of Colorado, Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin, and Tom McClintock of California--voted against the effort and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) was out for cancer treatment. 

Suozzi had first been elected in 2016 and left that seat to run against Gov. Kathy Hochul for the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial primary, where he came in third place with just 13 percent of the vote. 

The House currently has 219 Republicans and 212 Democrats, with four vacancies, including Santos' expulsion. Once Suozzi is sworn in, the breakdown will be 219-213. 

As for the bigger picture, The New York Times' Nate Cohn pointed out on Monday that "the NY-3 special election result will not tell us anything about the general election." When posting about the results on Tuesday night, though, he nevertheless pointed to how Suozzi's win represented "a big pickup for Democrats in their pursuit of retaking the House" which is certainly on their mind for 2024.

While it could indeed be the case that the results "will not tell us anything about the general election," it can't be ignored that Democrats are likely feeling good for the November 2024 election, when all members are up for reelection. There's also concerns about House Republican unity, with a Roll Call survey recently finding that House Republicans for 2023 had the "owest win rate on ‘party unity’ votes since 1982."

We just witnessed the consequences of that disunity on Tuesday night as Democrats flipped the seat back.