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Will the Disastrous Border Bill Affect the Arizona Senate Race?

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  February 06, 2024 4:00 PM

After months of previews and some top Democrats expressing hope that a deal would be finalized before the end of 2023, the bill on the border, which also provides funding for Israel and Ukraine, was revealed Sunday night. The response, as Townhall has been covering at length, was disastrous. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) continues to insist that the bill was "dead on arrival." While there's been a focus on the Republican negotiator of the bill, Oklahoma Sen. James Lankford and Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, now an Independent, played a role as well. 

Lankford was castigated for his role, with the Oklahoma GOP censuring him last week. Although, Stan Stevens, OKGOP executive director, told The Hill that it was not "legitimate" and the members were not given "proper notice." Regardless, Lankford recently won reelection in November 2022 by more than 32 points in the general election and more than 41 points in the primary. He's not up for reelection until 2028.

Sinema's seat, however, is up, as she plays coy as to if she's even running for reelection. She recently gave a non-answer to Scripps News about whether she'll run again. She also has a little more than two months to decide, with the filing period ending on April 8. 

The senator was asked, "Does the fact that you're in these negotiations, types of negotiations, factor in your decision whether you'd want to hang around DC?"

Sinema answered she's more focused on the present, while also touting her record. "The reality is I'm just 100 percent focused on doing this work. Arizonans have known that in the more than five years I've served in the United States Senate, I have stayed laser-focused on getting things done. And as we know in the United States Senate, the only way you pass legislation is through a bipartisan way, and I have been proud to lead the negotiations on every major bipartisan piece of legislation that we've achieved in recent years," she said.

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"That's no different from what I'm doing today, and I'm going to stay laser-focused on getting this bill across the finish line," she added.  

The more we find out, the more likely this bill is doomed to fail, as enough Senate Republicans are coming out against it.

No matter what Sinema ends up deciding, the Arizona Senate race already has enough excitement to it, as Republican Kari Lake and Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego look to be their party's likely nominees. Both have gone after Sinema, especially in Gallego's case, when it looked as if the two of them would be in a primary battle together before Sinema switched to Independent in December 2022. 

Lake has been a strong opponent of the border bill. She's also been no stranger to calling out her potential or declared opponents, whether it's Gallego or Sinema. 

Since Sunday, Lake has posted and reposted about the bill more than a dozen times, including sharing her statement on the bill.

"The Biden-Sinema border deal, backed by Gallego, is a slap in the face to Arizona communities. Under President Trump, we saw the most secure border in our lifetime, only to see it be stripped away by Joe Biden and his enablers, Kyrsten Sinema and Ruben Gallego," the statement reads. "This bill does more to fund endless wars overseas than it does to fund the security of American citizens. Simply put: this would make a permanent open border the law of the land. I'm running for U.S. Senate to finally clean this mess up and secure our border. When I'm in the U.S. Senate, I will work tirelessly until we close the border, finish the wall and secure America."

A common theme from that statement and Lake's posts has been calling out Sinema and Gallego, usually in the form of reposts of the two. 

The Border Patrol Union has come out in support of the bill when it comes to the provisions on the border, leading the Biden administration to lash out against Republican opponents for being at odds with the union. It's rather rich for this administration to suddenly care, though, considering that it has demonized and punished border patrol agents over a whipping hoax, with border patrol sources denying agents whipped Haitians crossing illegally.

Fox News reports that Yuma County Supervisor Jonathan Lines, of an Arizona border county, has urged Congress to reject the bill. 

House Republicans from Arizona are also opposed to the bill. "Among Arizona's 11-member congressional delegation, Republicans appeared united in their opposition to the Senate deal because of the border security provisions," AZ Central reported. 

One Arizona Democrat, Rep. Raúl Grijalva, the dean of the Arizona congressional delegation, doesn't think it goes far enough. As we've covered before, another threat to this bill was Democrats in disarray who felt it wasn't progressive enough. 

Noting Grijalva's concerns, the AZ Central report also mentions:

Progressive Democratic Rep. Raúl Grijalva, the dean of the Arizona congressional delegation, said he was disappointed with the deal and criticized it for not tackling larger, comprehensive changes or addressing the root causes of migration.

"The Senate missed an opportunity to create thoughtful and lasting immigration reform and to confront and humanely manage our humanitarian crisis at the border," Grijalva's written statement said. "Instead, the bill doubles down on punitive measures that read like an extreme Republican wish list filled with failed Trump-era immigration policies."

The 2024 Arizona Senate race is considered one to watch no matter what Sinema does, as it's a year full of opportunities for Senate Republicans, especially compared to the 2022 midterm elections. Current polling information shows mixed results, especially as many polls are internal or have partisan sponsors. A January poll from the Democratic Public Policy Polling and commissioned by Replace Sinema PAC showed Gallego and Lake in a dead heat. With Sinema in the race, Gallego is ahead with 36 percent, Lake has 35 percent and Sinema has 17 percent. Without Sinema, Lake is ahead with 46 percent to Gallego's 45 percent, while 10 percent are undecided. 

Forecasters currently consider the race to be a "Toss-Up."