Tipsheet

POLITICO, Cook Political Report Signal Even More of a Red Wave

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  November 04, 2022 10:00 AM

Four days out from Election Day, and forecasters are still updating their predictions. Many changes, including almost all from POLITICO and Cook Political Report, favor Republicans, signaling a red wave that is even more imminent.

When it comes to the New Hampshire Senate race, where Republican Don Bolduc is facing vulnerable incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH), the former has been making gains in polls. That race is now a "Toss Up." 

A Republican even has a chance in bright blue Washington State, where Republican Tiffany Smiley is running against Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA). Polls have also shown Murray's lead lessening. The race there is "Lean Democratic."

As Steven Shepard highlighted for POLITICO early on Friday morning about how these rating changes apply to Republican chances overall in taking back the Senate:

The overall battle for the Senate majority continues to be a “Toss Up.” But the range of plausible outcomes now includes a sizable Republican majority: A sweep of the six “Toss Up” races would give the GOP 54 seats.

And if the two parties split the “Toss Up” races evenly, Republicans would still win a one-seat majority in the chamber. Democrats are banking on the power of incumbency and lingering unpopularity of some Republican nominees to overcome an increasingly rough political environment for the party in power.

New Hampshire is one of three Senate races changing in our latest ratings update, in addition to four governor’s races and 13 House races — with almost all of the shifts going in Republicans’ direction. The political environment in the closing days of the race continues to move toward the GOP.

Other significant races include New York's gubernatorial race, as more and more forecasters acknowledge that Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY) has a shot in unseating Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY). This is especially with crime being a top issue, which Hochul has downplayed, even calling concerns a "conspiracy." That race moved from "Likely Democratic" to "Lean Democratic."

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Last Monday, Cook Political Report changed Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney's (D-NY) race to a "Toss Up," which means the head of the DCCC could actually lose his seat. POLITICO got on board with that rating on Friday as well. 

POLITICO did change Rep. Steve Chabot's (R-OH) race from "Toss Up" to "Lean Democratic" as he runs against Democrat Greg Landsman, though other forecasters still consider that race to be a "Toss Up." 

On Friday, Cook Political Report also made a rating change, getting on board with other forecasters by changing Sen. Ron Johnson's (R-WI) race to "Lean Republican."

In her analysis for that morning, Jessica Taylor highlighted how "In Final Push For Senate Control, Republican Momentum Grows." As she writes early on, "it appears Republicans could be peaking at the right time."

"More traditional midterm expectations seem to have again taken hold, which is never good news for the president’s party. While Democrats saw momentum swing in their favor this summer on abortion following the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, the economy, inflation and crime are now driving a dour environment across the board," she continues to write. 

The predictions of R+3 could turn to a 52-48 Senate or even better, Taylor writes, "if it is a very good night." The seats most worth watching include Pennsylvania's Senate race between John Fetterman and Dr. Mehmet Oz, Nevada's Senate race between Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and Adam Laxalt, and Georgia's Senate race between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Herschel Walker, though the latter could head to a runoff.