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Tipsheet

Another Poll Shows Good News for Lee Zeldin

Stefani Reynolds/Pool via AP

Last Friday, as we covered, RealClearPolitics (RCP) changed the rating in the New York gubernatorial race between Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican opponent Rep. Lee Zeldin to "Toss-Up." Zeldin is once more in the news again on Tuesday, as a Quinnipiac poll shows that Hochul leads her opponent by just 4 percentage points, 50 percent to 46 percent. 

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Both candidates enjoy strong support from their party members, with 91 percent of Democrats supporting Hochul and 92 percent of Republicans supporting Zeldin. However, by double digits, Independents support Zeldin, by 57 to 37 percent. This support is crucial given how much Democratic voters outweigh Republican ones in the state. 

Hochul and Zeldin are about even when it comes to the favorable ratings, at 44 percent and 43 percent, respectively. Hochul has greater unfavorable ratings, though, at 45 percent, while 9 percent said they hadn't heard enough about her. Zeldin's unfavorable ratings are at 37 percent, while 18 percent haven't heard enough about him. 

Another factor that helps Zeldin is that crime is the top issue for voters, at 28 percent, which Zeldin has acknowledged by making it a cornerstone of his campaign. 

The NY GOP Twitter account reminded voters of how Zeldin last week revealed part of his Day One agenda, which includes declaring a state of emergency on crime, suspending cashless bail, and firing Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.

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"In the blue state of New York, the race for governor is competitive. Democrats have cruised to victory in gubernatorial races since 2006, but Governor Hochul's narrow edge puts Republican Lee Zeldin well within striking distance of her," Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow is quoted as saying. Snow also acknowledges the crime issue being a factor. "Across the board, crime ranks high on the list of pressing issues. Zeldin making crime a major part of his campaign could be where he's making inroads in this race."

While Hochul leads Zeldin by 4 percent, the amount of Democratic respondents over Republican respondents is far greater than that. Thirty-nine percent identify as Democrats, while 31 percent identify as Independents and just 24 percent identify as Republican. 

The poll was conducted October 12-16, with 1,617 likely New York voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Zeldin's campaign released a statement from the congressman not long after the poll results came out. 

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"We've consistently been gaining massive ground on Hochul as New Yorkers witness first hand her abysmal record on the issues most important to them - crime, the economy, corruption and more," he said. "Every day, all day, we've been ALL IN, all across the state, communicating directly with voters about the issues that matter most to them. The polls have continued to show that our message is resonating, and on Tuesday, November 8th, New York voters are going to elect a new Governor to Save Our State and restore New York to glory."

RCP's average of polls has increased to give a +6.2 lead for Hochul, as a poll from Siena College found an 11 point lead for Hochul, with 52 percent to Zeldin's 41 percent. Even still, a tweet from The New York Times shows that her lead is shrinking according to that poll as well.

"Zeldin" and "Quinnipiac" were trending over Twitter on Tuesday as a result of the poll, with many pointing out that the race is indeed becoming competitive.

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