With Election Day a week away, Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY) continues to have momentum in the New York gubernatorial race. On Monday, the Trafalgar Group released a poll showing Zeldin with a small lead, 48.4 percent to Gov. Kathy Hochul's 47.6 percent. Four percent of voters are still undecided.
New @trafalgar_group #NYGov #Poll (10/27-10/31) is turning out to be one to watch with #Zeldin holding a razor thin lead in a statistical tie. #nypol
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) November 1, 2022
48.4% @leezeldin
47.6% @KathyHochul
4.0% Und
See Report: https://t.co/sh7bW4h83Z pic.twitter.com/1qNbtvuqNd
The poll was conducted October 27-31, with 1,198 likely general election voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent. While Zeldin's lead is quite narrow and certainly within the margin of error, it does show a post-debate bump for the Republican nominee.
When Trafalgar polled New Yorkers in late September-early October, Zeldin had 42.6 percent support compared to Hochul's 44.5 percent. At the time, 9.7 percent were still undecided.
Speaking of a post-debate bump, Gov. Hochul truly did not appear to help herself as she came off as quite dismissive on crime during last Tuesday's debate, which polls show is the top issue for New Yorkers. She's appeared to double down on her tone-deafness, evidenced by her remarks on MSNBC's "PoliticsNation." As The New York Post covered on Monday, the governor on Sunday not only doubled down on her claim that Zeldin is an "election denier" but also that he and others who are making crime an issue are "data deniers."
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"And while murders were down by 14% in New York City over the summer compared with last year, all other major crimes surged — including a 33% rise in robberies, police statistics show," The New York Post mentioned.
At last week’s debate, @KathyHochul asked why putting away criminals was so important to me. Now, she’s claiming it’s a conspiracy that crime is on the rise. Hochul’s soft on crime, head in the sand approach to coddling criminals is making our streets & subways less safe. https://t.co/uvWfbp2KAB
— Lee Zeldin (@leezeldin) November 1, 2022
A guest essay by Democrat Mark Penn in The New York Times and reporting from Charlotte Alter for TIME on Monday reference the issue of crime as to why Zeldin could pull off a win.
Gov. Hochul certainly is running scared. She referred to herself as an "underdog," as Leah covered on Monday. Further, Friday's fundraising numbers showed that Zeldin outraised Hochul and is nearly tied when it comes to cash on hand.
What’s stood out to me about @leezeldin’s political career is that as a congresman and state senator, he won by beating an incumbent. No easy feat! His fundraising numbers also make him a strong, impressive a candidate. Latest filing shows that Zeldin outraised Gov. Kathy Hochul. pic.twitter.com/2uEGTjDrCU
— Rebecca Downs (@RebeccaRoseGold) October 29, 2022
"Trafalgar" was trending on Twitter on Tuesday as a result. RealClearPolitics (RCP), which has the race as a "Toss Up," considers the poll to show a tie. Hochul's lead is thus brought down to +4.5. Cook Political Report updated its forecast last Friday to favor Zeldin, moving the race from "Solid Democrat" to "Likely Democrat."
A Co/efficient poll from last month also had Zeldin with a slight lead of 45.6 percent to Hochul's 45.3 percent.
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