Elon Musk left the Trump administration and has torched the president’s main legislative goal: passing the ‘big, beautiful bill.’ This budget reconciliation process is fraught with danger, with more than enough ways for things to go sideways—the chance of hitting rocky shoals is high. We have a slim majority in the House and enough clowns in the Senate to make things difficult. The Congressional Budget Office gave ammunition to the likes of Rand Paul and Thomas Massie when they dropped this nugget today (via The Hill):
President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” would add $2.4 trillion to the nation’s deficit over roughly the next decade, a new cost estimate from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows.
The agency estimated the proposed tax cuts in the plan — which seek to lock in expiring provisions in Trump signature 2017 tax law, along with a host of other add-ons — would decrease revenues by more than $3.6 trillion over that time frame.
We’ve been here before. It’s actually a bipartisan problem: the CBO can only score what’s in front of them. They cannot account for economic growth in their predictions, as Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) explained:
Extending the Trump tax cuts for workers, families, farmers, and small businesses is a crucial part of a larger pro-growth agenda that the American people are demanding. Most importantly, Congress has a responsibility to ensure that these tax cuts are extended and that those we represent can keep more money in their pockets after a disastrous four years of the Biden-Harris Administration that added $10 trillion in new spending and fueled a more than 20 percent spike in prices.
“Democrats successfully leveraged CBO’s bias towards more government spending when passing their $2 trillion so-called stimulus, and then again when they passed their inflationary spending bill, using fake payfors that led to skyrocketing costs and the ability to claim policies like giving the IRS an $80 billion pay raise didn’t add to the deficit. Unfortunately, CBO is simply not equipped to calculate the costs of the totality of all pro-growth policies that President Trump has pledged, including regulatory reform, which would address over $3 trillion in costs.
“CBO will always predict a dark future when Republicans propose tax relief – but the reality is never so dire. CBO’s own fiscal year 2024 numbers reveal that corporate receipts came in at $529 billion, exceeding CBO’s $421 billion prediction made after the passage of the 2017 Trump tax cuts.
“No one in their right mind believes that allowing the Trump tax cuts to expire – resulting in a $4 trillion tax increase – would have anything but a negative impact on the economy. Republicans will extend these tax cuts and keep our promise to the American people to make America’s economy strong again
White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller has been on the offensive pushing for the BBB to pass, noting that it’s not an appropriations bill. It’s a piece of legislation that seeks to reform welfare, make the Trump tax cuts permanent, and enact crucial immigration enforcement policies.
One of the bigger points of confusion on the BBB is spending vs tax cuts.
The lefty CBO says extending the 2017 tax cuts (preventing their expiration) increases the deficit.
Some critics have seen this figure and claimed or implied the bill increases *spending.*
Even according to CBO, the bill cuts spending over $1.6 trillion.
So when a libertarian (eg Rand) attacks the “deficit” impact of the bill they are attacking the tax cut.
Of course, honestly accounted, extending current tax rates has zero deficit impact which is why the bill, because of its spending cuts, reduces the deficit.
A second major point of confusion is what’s actually in a reconciliation bill. It is not an appropriations bill, or a general budget bill. It provides no funding or authorization for 99%+ of the operations of government. It was written not by appropriators but some of the most conservative members of the House. It has not a single Democrat provision or vote.
The bill has three principal sections: tax cuts, welfare reform, immigration and border security. It is a dream bill.
One of the bigger points of confusion on the BBB is spending vs tax cuts.
— Stephen Miller (@StephenM) June 4, 2025
The lefty CBO says extending the 2017 tax cuts (preventing their expiration) increases the deficit.
Some critics have seen this figure and claimed or implied the bill increases *spending.*
Even according…
The BBB is not an appropriations bill. It does not fund 99% + of government. Zero dollars for Dept of Ed, zero dollars for HUD, zero dollars for EPA. Not a cent.
— Stephen Miller (@StephenM) June 4, 2025
BBB cuts taxes, deports the illegals and reforms welfare. We could have never dreamed of a bill like this in 2017.
If there are Republicans worried about the scary numbers, keep in mind that the party wants the Trump tax cuts extended, and they could care less about deficits right now.
To borrow from Stephen A. Smith, voters "don't care. They don't care" if the GOP bill will raise the deficit.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) May 20, 2025
60% overall and 74% of GOP want tax cuts, even if they raise the deficit.
No wonder the last president to lower the debt over his presidency was Coolidge. pic.twitter.com/GSqTQVZcj7
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