There’s that adage that political coalitions aren’t transferable. The Obama coalition was unique to the man himself, and that’s about it. They weren’t enthused by Hillary Clinton in 2016, whose team thought they could co-opt, with Joe Biden likely thinking he could do the same. The reality is the Obama coalition is dead. The mirage of the 2020 COVID election scrambled much of the tea leaves—that’s not the case.
The unions that Joe Biden touted as his people aren’t openly supporting Democrats this cycle, delivering brutal body blows to Kamala Harris, who needs all the help she can get within less than 50 days until Election Day. The International Association of Fire Fighters announced today that they’re not endorsing anyone. To put into context, this union endorsed Biden in 2019 (via Politico):
A statement from @IAFFPresident following today's IAFF Executive Board meeting pic.twitter.com/D6K6eQFrF7
— International Association of Fire Fighters (@IAFFofficial) October 3, 2024
International Association of Firefighters, an early Biden endorser in April 2019: “Today, the IAFF Executive Board, by a margin of 1.2%, voted to not endorse a candidate in the 2024 presidential election."
— Ken Thomas (@KThomasDC) October 3, 2024
Vice President Kamala Harris suffered a blow Thursday as the union representing more than 300,000 career firefighters and emergency responders declined to make a presidential endorsement, two weeks after the International Brotherhood of Teamsters made a similar decision.
Leaders of the International Association of Fire Fighters gathered this week and determined “by a margin of 1.2%” against picking a candidate, according to General President Edward Kelly.
“The IAFF Executive Board determined that we are better able to advocate for our members and make progress on the issues that matter to them if we, as a union, are standing shoulder-to-shoulder,” Kelly said in a statement. “This decision, which we took very seriously, is the best way to preserve and strengthen our unity.”
Harris has won the endorsements of an overwhelming number of unions. But it’s the second notable union-related setback in recent weeks for her campaign, which is strongly banking on organized labor to boost its outreach to working-class voters on her behalf — particularly in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
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IAFF’s late non-endorsement — with votes already being cast in some states — carries particular weight given that the union was the first to endorse President Joe Biden at the outset of his campaign to defeat Donald Trump in 2019. That was partly due to Biden’s decades-long ties with IAFF and its then-leader, Harold Schaitberger, who stepped aside in 2021.
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This announcement follows the International Brotherhood of Teamsters refusing to endorse either candidate, even though nearly 60 percent of their members backed Donald Trump. It’s an act of political cowardice on the union's part, though it’s still a blow to Kamala’s camp, which can’t seem to get those union slam dunks that are so often seen as political gimmes for Democrats. Following the Teamster’s national announcement, local state chapters did endorse Kamala, but the damage is done. There is a difference between the front office backing someone and the rank-and-file. Kamala is projected to be the worst-performing Democrat among union voters in a generation:
Trump has more working class support than any GOP presidential candidate in a generation. He's on track for the best performance among union voters in 40 years. He's up 31 points among trade school grads.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 30, 2024
He's doing 17 pts better among nonwhite non-college voters than in 2020. pic.twitter.com/0ObrWWNzYf
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