The Kamala message isn’t working. Some of it has to do with the fact that she’s an abysmal candidate, but it’s part of the trend we saw in 2016: the Democratic Party despises and dismisses working-class voters. Once the backbone of the party, the increasingly white, wealthy, and over-educated—those who dominate the cities and coasts—have taken the wheel of liberal messaging. Their view is clear: if you’re not like us, you’re trash. Hence, the lectures, the mockery, and the denigration of working people. It’s why working-class people are flocking toward Donald Trump and the GOP, though I admit it’s not because the Republican National Committee has been wizards at messaging. But the GOP doesn’t spit in the faces of these people in the fashion of a typical liberal Democrat.
Harris is projected to be the worst-performing Democrat among union voters in a generation. She’s only leading this bloc over Trump by nine points; Biden won it by 19 in 2020. Hillary Clinton only won it by 12 compared to her husband, who dominated this group by at least 30 points in 1992. When it comes to the working class vote, folks who opted for trade schools, Trump dominates this slice of the electorate by at least 31 points. They broke for Bill Clinton by seven in 1992. CNN’s Harry Enten said this breakdown captures the state of our politics and how this once reliable Democratic bloc—union/working-class voters—are now squarely in the GOP camp. What he had to say about non-white voters without college educations wasn’t good either, with Kamala underwater in that category as well (via RealClearPolitics):
Trump has more working class support than any GOP presidential candidate in a generation. He's on track for the best performance among union voters in 40 years. He's up 31 points among trade school grads.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 30, 2024
He's doing 17 pts better among nonwhite non-college voters than in 2020. pic.twitter.com/0ObrWWNzYf
Sometimes there are data points that just jump off the screen and should set off sirens. Alright, this is union households, this is the Democratic margin in the presidential election. It ain't what it used to be.
You go back to 1992, Bill Clinton won that union vote by 30 points. Hillary Clinton only won it by 12 points back in 2016. That was the lowest mark for a Democrat since 1984, Mondale versus Reagan. But look at where Kamala Harris is today. She is only leading by nine points. That would be the worst Democratic performance in a generation. Ten points off the mark of Joe Biden, who of course won four years ago as sort of that union guy, "Union Joe," right? He won by 19 points. She's ten points off his mark, and the worst in a generation if this, in fact, holds.
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Folks who use their hands. I think a lot of people often conflate the union vote with those who use their hands. Mike Rowe, of course, has been arguing more people should go to trade schools, more people should get a vocational degree. Look at this margin. This, to me -- oh boy, does this tell you about the state of our politics now versus back in the early 1990s. The margin among vocational and trade school grads in pre-election polling: Bill Clinton was leading that vote over George H.W. Bush by seven points. Look at where Donald Trump is today over Kamala Harris -- a 31-point advantage.
When I think people think of the working class, they think of people who use their hands. And we know that Donald Trump has been going after that vote, and he is in a very, very strong position—more so perhaps than with any other bloc. The folks who go to trade school, vocations—that has moved from being a core Democratic group to now being a core group of Donald Trump’s massive amount of support among the working class.
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We’ve been noting on this program that Donald Trump seems to be having some real impact among voters of color, getting into that traditional Democratic support. And I was very interested to see this because we’re talking about the working class, right? So this is the margin among non-college graduates.
Alright, the voters of color -- you go back four years ago, look at that: Joe Biden won that group by 45 points. Look at where Kamala Harris’s support is today. She’s leading amongst that group, but that lead is down 17 points, to just 28 points. And I will note that the margin among voters of color who actually graduate from college has only changed by about 5.5 points compared to four years ago.
The reason Donald Trump is doing so well amongst voters of color is because he has really gained ground with a lot of voters that he didn’t previously have, among those who didn’t graduate college. This is part of a larger trend that we’re seeing throughout our politics, in which Republicans—specifically Donald Trump—are doing very, very well among working-class voters, whether they’re in unions, went to trade school, or are voters of color.
For all the media’s mockery of Donald Trump, along with that of Democrats, concerning the former president’s messaging, they’re once again ignoring what the polls are saying which is that this man has infiltrated core groups of the Democratic base. It’s why what he says resonates and lingers in the news cycle, good and bad, though some of it rests on the media trying to damage the former president when they cannot.
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