Joe Biden’s presidency is over. It’s now a half-dead vessel, much like the man himself, but Democrats appear overjoyed that Vice President Kamala Harris is taking the 2024 Democratic mantle, though it’s not like Joe had much choice. He had to back Harris if he bowed out. The disunity he sowed by remaining in the race led to an unprecedented fracturing of the party not seen since 1968. Harris is the only person who could legally inherit his war chest. If he couldn’t run for a second term, maybe he could work on bringing the party back together. Harris’ ascension has led to over $250 million in donations, another damning sign that Biden likely would have run out of juice in the final and most critical phase of the 2024 election.
Yet, NBC’s Steve Kornacki threw cold water on the Harris candidacy, namely that she’s untested. She dropped out before the start of the primaries in 2020; Tom Steyer’s campaign lasted longer than hers. She’s also equally unpopular as Biden and owns the same record. Kornacki noted that “hope” more than numbers is inflating Democrats’ hopes of keeping the White House in November (via RealClearPolitics) [emphasis mine]:
NBC's Kornacki: Idea That Kamala Harris Will Do Better Than Biden Is "Based More On Hope" Than Any Numbershttps://t.co/vkeO04Cr7g
— RCP Video (@rcpvideo) July 22, 2024
"She has not really been tested. Her name never got to a primary ballot in 2020. She dropped out a couple of months before that." pic.twitter.com/ubt6eM1gfm
There'd be no real parallel for Biden exiting at this point. He's the presumptive WH nominee (meaning: won needed delegates in primaries) and no one in that position has withdrawn in the modern era. For that matter, no major party WH nominee has ever dropped out.
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) July 2, 2024
Trump 47%, Harris 46%.
In the same set of polls, when it was Joe Biden, 47% for Trump and 45% for Biden.
The Democratic number on average goes up from 45 to 46. I think it underscores for Democrats, they view this move as something that's going to improve their chances in the general election. That is based more on hope than it is on the numbers right now.
You go another level deep in this and you've got the favorable, unfavorable. The basic impression people have of these candidates here. For Joe Biden, these numbers have looked like this for a long time. Very, very bad numbers. 36% favorable, 57% unfavorable. Again, in an average of polls over the last month.
What's the difference with Kamala Harris? Again, not much of a difference. From 36% favorable to 38%, 57% unfavorable down to 52%. That's still a majority of voters saying they have an unfavorable impression of Kamala Harris.
Throw up Donald Trump's numbers for comparison, he's at 41% favorable, 55% unfavorable. All three of these figures with a majority of voters saying that are unfavorably impressed by them.
So, again, from the Democratic standpoint here, they think Harris being reintroduced as a presidential candidate, getting a different look, they think these numbers can improve for her, both in the favorables and in the horse race against Trump. But we don't know. As you say, she has not really been tested. Her name never got to a primary ballot in 2020. She dropped out a couple of months before that.
Yet, Trump has a coalition where he could have an approval rating in the 40s and still win due to how his base is distributed. Trump voters live in areas where elections are decided. It’s something that David Shor, a liberal data scientist, has mentioned, adding that the Trump coalition is very efficiently distributed geographically. Harris has the coasts and the Acela Corridor, and even they might become just as depressed as they were with Biden once Harris devolves into a cackling idiot, which is something that everyone knows, including Biden’s staff.
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