President Joe Biden’s aides are focused on only one figure: the number of voters who pull the lever for ‘uncommitted.’ These protest votes are aimed at this administration’s policy toward Israel, where Muslim Americans have reached full forth regarding the Israel-Hamas war—a conflict they see as genocidal. It’s not, but that hasn’t stopped these angry masses from digesting an array of misinformation that alleges, among many things, that no Israelis were raped and beheaded during Hamas’ brutal October 7 terror attacks.
Still, Michigan is a must-win state for Biden. If Muslims and young people—another crucial voter bloc unhappy with Biden’s Israel policy—stay home, coupled with labor union members defecting to Trump, the president’s re-election could be placed in jeopardy. Politico reported that Biden aides are “freaking out” over what the number of uncommitted voters will be:
Amid a steady stream of polls showing DONALD TRUMP leading in the state, leaders there in the Arab and Muslim American communities have organized against Biden over what they see as the administration’s disregard for Palestinian suffering.
A more radical campaign under the banner of “Abandon Biden” has given up on him completely. A more moderate campaign calling itself “Listen to Michigan” is holding out hope that Biden can change course and back a permanent cease-fire. They are urging voters to send him a message in today’s Michigan primary by choosing “uncommitted” on their ballot.
Biden is outwardly playing it cool. He hasn’t been to Michigan since Feb. 1. But his allies in the state say that behind the scenes there is panic at the White House and inside the Biden reelection campaign.
“They are freaking out about the uncommitted vote,” said a Democrat close to Biden.
Biden quietly recorded a couple of radio interviews that aired yesterday to boost Democratic turnout. And he used his trip to 30 Rock to assure the public that a cease-fire, at least a temporary one, is right around the corner. After wrapping the interview with Meyers, the two hit a nearby ice cream parlor and Biden said he hoped for calm by Monday.
“Nothing in politics is a coincidence,” Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) told us about the election-eve timing of Biden’s statements. “This is happening because the president is hearing that a large part of his coalition wants this war to end.”
It took Biden a long time to engage in personal outreach to Muslim and Arab leaders in the state, and that occurred only after lobbying by elected officials, one of whom said Biden’s aides were “keeping him in a bubble.”
Khanna, who often serves as a liaison between the White House and progressives, visited Michigan and was struck by the intensity of the anti-Biden sentiment. “There is a deep sense of hurt and loss, pain, grief among the Muslim and Arab American community and the progressive community,” Khanna said
The number the pro-Gaza ceasefire folks are hoping to get tonight is 10,000 uncommitted votes, but that seems historically low (via Politico):
We had some back and forth with the Biden campaign over what was a proper metric, so we wanted to lay out the recent history of votes for “uncommitted” in the Michigan presidential primary:
2008: 238,168 votes (40.1%)
2012: 20,833 votes (10.7%)
2016: 21,601 votes (1.8%)
2020: 19,106 votes (1.2%)
So what is a fair comparison?
The Biden campaign likes to point to 2008, “the last time there was an organized uncommitted push in the state,” as a Biden adviser emphasized to us. (BARACK OBAMA and JOHN EDWARDS skipped the state, and their supporters largely voted for “uncommitted.”)
They also like 2012, because that was the “last time there was an incumbent president on the ballot.”
Both are fair points, and you will see a lot of Biden surrogates on the tube today making them.
However, when the Biden campaign talks about 2016 and 2020, it emphasizes the raw vote totals (roughly 20,000) rather than the low percentages (1-2%).
Pay attention to both tonight as the numbers roll in before you make your judgments about how successful the “uncommitted” campaign was in Michigan.
Tonight, we’ll know if the Muslim voter rebellion is genuine. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) has been urging her supporters to vote “uncommitted.”
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