Donald Trump drawing such an intense reaction from liberals could be the only positive thing about Joe Biden’s 2024 prospects. Sure, he’ll raise plenty of money as an incumbent, but what about voter enthusiasm and fears of that much-discussed third-party run that could siphon key voters, especially in suburban areas, away from Joe Biden? We’re in a period where there’s so much time that people can ponder and panic at will. What is clear is that Biden might be among the weakest incumbents to seek a second term.
Don’t bring up the Obama factor. Obama had poor numbers and didn’t start that hot in his 2012 re-election, but Obama has political skills—Biden does not. Obama was also significantly younger, and Mitt Romney is not Donald Trump. If anything, Biden’s now-daily struggles with his age, physical ability, and mental cognition could drag his numbers even lower. And before Republicans get excited about that, remember that Pennsylvania elected a stroke-ridden man to serve as a US Senator because the other guy was seen as too much of a Trump acolyte.
We’re in for an all-out gutter election, where our hatred for one another is the only thing that will keep this a close contest. For most, it will repel them from the polls, though this is politics at its core. But before that showdown occurs, Democrats are getting heartburn over Biden’s heinous approval ratings (via The Hill):
Senate Democrats say President Biden’s moribund poll numbers are “concerning” and “frustrating,” but they are doubtful any messaging shift by the White House will change how voters view him before the 2024 election.
They acknowledge the 80-year-old president’s biggest problem is his age, which negatively influences how many voters view his presidency and contributes to a lack of enthusiasm for his 2024 reelection campaign.
[…]
One Democratic senator who requested anonymity said voters at home expressed deep apathy about Biden’s prospective reelection during constituent meetings over the August recess.
The senator said the polling data “reflect all the miscellaneous encounters I’m having all the time.”
“There’s just no enthusiasm,” the senator said. “It does pretty much come down to ‘Well, he’s done a pretty good job, but he’s just too old.’”
[…]
Some Democrats are expressing frustration with the White House’s economic messaging because an effort to tout the results of “Bidenomics” shows little sign of succeeding.
“There’s work to be done, stronger messaging, more aggressive campaigning but we’re still very, very early,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) of Biden’s weak poll numbers.
But we’ve heard about this Democratic voter deflation during the 2020 and 2022 elections, which was a total mirage. Biden is now president, and Republicans, hoping for a red midterm wave, only managed to put together a five-seat majority in the House. It’s early, but not the best foundation for an incumbent who is also 1,000 years old.
Obama had time to maneuver and political messaging that resonated, especially with white working-class voters, winning enough of them twice in both elections. Obama was a skilled communicator and had an ace political team, something I hate to admit, but he beat us handily twice. Biden isn’t any of that, and he’s rolling C-squad regarding staffing.
And how do some Democratic strategists explain the disconnect between what they perceive as a thriving economy and the voters? It’s our fault; we’re not paying attention:
Steve Jarding, a Democratic strategist who served as an adviser to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said Biden’s message on the economy isn’t breaking through “because Americans are just not paying attention.”
Yeah, blaming the voters has always worked in these situations, right? The Jimmy Carter School of Campaigns is not a place you want to look for winning messages, though I’m not going to stop Democrats from taking pages of that playbook, which always ends with blaming us for a national malaise.
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