Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was supposedly the man taking up the mantle for the conservative movement, the heir to the Trump coalition who could undo the damage inflicted on the country by Joe Biden. But then, Trump decided to run for president again, and Ron wasn’t going to alter his political map, so a collision course was set. When he announced, Trump was still ahead in the polls, but DeSantis was quietly chipping away at the former president’s lead in the polls. Everything changed when Trump got indicted again. Whether you like Trump or not, the fallout from that bit of legal news was stunning. It’s only something that could happen to him: he politically got stronger. An indictment kills one’s political ambitions, but not for Trump. Being a victim of the political establishment, a rogue FBI, and a corrupt media, the attacks against him are ineffective; the GOP base does not care.
It puts DeSantis in a terrible position. If the attacks from the Left can’t damage Trump, neither will those from the Right. In a field of primary no-names, Trump is quickly going to wipe them out in the first few contests, possibly even before that, because unless some of these bids are self-funded, I don’t see a fundraising pool big enough to support anyone who isn’t Trump or DeSantis. Maybe North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, the ‘who the hell is that’ candidate, could tread water since he’s independently wealthy.
Unable to capitalize on a twice-indicted frontrunner, there are reportedly alarm bells going off inside the DeSantis camp; though Newsweek probably has the correct theme, I doubt it was over an advert that slammed Pride month (via Newsweek):
DeSantis has failed to take advantage of Trump getting indicted in both the New York falsifying business records case and Special Counsel Jack Smith's classified documents investigation, where the former president has denied 37 charges respectively. DeSantis has not made any traction in the GOP primary polls while also seeing his favorabilty rating plummet.
Just 35.9 percent of Americans hold a favorable view of DeSantis, compared to 45.2 percent who say they view him unfavorably as of June 29, according to FiveThirtyEight's national average tracker, although experts point out the campaign is still in its early stages.
DeSantis's unfavorable rating among potential voters has been steadily rising since late March, when he recorded a split 39.3 percent favorable rating. This includes the time after he confirmed his 2024 bid in late May in an error-strewn Twitter Space online announcement.
DeSantis' favorability rating also arrives at a time when the Florida governor, who has signed several anti-LGBTQ laws during his tenure, was criticized by a Republican group for a presidential campaign advert as being "homophobic."
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The piece later quotes The Lincoln Project, a cadre of defrocked and disgruntled GOP operatives who hate conservative Republicans, so it’s no shock they took a few shots at DeSantis. Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Trump critic, also heavily criticized the Florida governor’s campaign, but Hogan isn’t the face of the party, nor does he speak for the base. The important parts of the Newsweek piece are the favorability numbers, which are brutal at this early stage in the game. It isn’t good, and it’s creating a narrative we’ve seen before when it comes to popular governors taking on Trump: they peak too soon and later cancel themselves out of the presidential game forever. Even DeSantis’ advisers, like Steve Cortes, a former Trump adviser, said the governor is way behind right now on the metrics for beating Trump (via Politico):
A top spokesperson for Ron DeSantis’ super PAC is sounding a decidedly dour note on the Florida governor’s presidential prospects, saying his campaign is facing an “uphill battle” and is trailing badly in the key nominating states.
Steve Cortes, who previously supported Donald Trump, also heaped praise on the former president, calling him a “runaway frontrunner” and “maestro” of the debate.
“Right now in national polling we are way behind, I’ll be the first to admit that,” Cortes said in a Twitter spaces event that was recorded on Sunday night. “I believe in being blunt and honest. It’s an uphill battle but clearly Donald Trump is the runaway frontrunner.”
Calling the DeSantis campaign the “clear underdog,” he added: “In the first four states which matter tremendously, polls are a lot tighter, we are still clearly down. We’re down double digits, we have work to do.”
The remarks amounted to a remarkably blunt admission of vulnerability from within the ranks of a leading presidential operation, contrasting with the projection of confidence that other DeSantis aides often adopt. Cortes did say he thought the gap between Trump and DeSantis could be closed once DeSantis’ personal and political story is shared more widely on the campaign trail.
That’s a big “if,” and if you’re trailing Trump in the polls in a primary, history shows it stays that way. This sort of news gives big-money donors heartburn. I wouldn’t say the DeSantis campaign is sinking like the Titanic, but it’s taking on water.
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