Often, politicians put too much faith in polls. Since 2012, their accuracy has degraded. In 2016, they were insanely off, which led to the greatest political upset in modern American history. It’s also shakier when the Trump coalition isn’t “loyal” for a lack of a better word. These voters had voted for Democrats in the past, with millions being Obama voters. A great many were two-time Obama voters. In fact, a good chunk voted for Democrats in the 2018 midterms, though two-thirds now say they’re backing Trumpthis year. And it doesn’t matter who the Democratic rival is; that should cause some pause with Democrats heading into 2020. Oh, and these are all battleground state voters.
Democrats didn’t care. They couldn’t. The 2018 promise was that they’ll impeach Trump. Support for President Trump’s impeachment is now underwater nationally, and it was never popular in the swing states, especially in Wisconsin and Michigan. These are states that Democrats need to win in 2020. And these voters could’ve maybe have been persuaded to vote Democratic if they had an agenda that spoke to working class Americans. They don’t. And now, with Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her crew getting the article of impeachment through the House and now holding onto them because they face certain death in the Republican Senate, these voters are just Trump Republicans now. Maybe the window was never there, but even if there was—this Democratic Party’s far-left extremism wouldn’t have sold. For starters, the health care plan that Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders want will destroy 150+ million private health care plans. That’s the only way Medicare for All works—and those on the casualty list include union households. Talk about an election killer. And now with this impeachment theater; these voters are “sick” of it (via Axios):
The two-plus hour conversation revealed major warning signs for the Democratic Party in a crucial swing county that will be a pivotal area to win in 2020.
This was the biggest takeaway from our Engagious/FPG focus group last week, which included 10 voters who flipped from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016.
While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, these responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about the 2020 election in crucial counties.
The big picture:
These voters hate the fact that House Democrats are moving toward impeaching the president. They call it a distraction from the issues that would actually improve their lives, like preserving Social Security, cracking down on illegal immigration, and keeping jobs in the U.S.
"I think she's wasting a lot of [taxpayer] money on a ghost chase," said Chad Y., a 43-year-old Obama/Trump voter, of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. "The money she's spending on that could go to help the homeless or go towards health care."
Another participant, 73-year-0ld Michael G., said Democrats' focus is in the wrong direction. "Instead of working on policies and things that will help the people, they are just working to basically preserve their own position ... [T]hey don't really care about you and [me], I don't think."
Oh, and remember the Armageddon tax bill Trump pushed through Congress? Well, these voters think it made health care more affordable. As Axios noted, “they said…his [Trump] GOP tax law, which some said has saved them more in taxes so they can now reallocate that money to pay for prescription drugs.”
And speaking about the Trump tax bill and the economy, it sure got the economy roaring, didn’t it?
How do Democrats explain this? I thought @realDonaldTrump's economic leadership was supposed to lead to Armageddon?— Andrew Clark ?? (@AndrewHClark) December 27, 2019
"Wages for nonsupervisory employees — who make up 82% of the workforce — are rising at the fastest rate in more than a decade."https://t.co/6Puy9OMooV
Pelosi promised "Armageddon" if @GOP tax bill passed.— Michael Ahrens (@michael_ahrens) December 27, 2019
What happened instead?
Wages rose 4.5% for the bottom 25% over the past year – compared to 2.9% for the for the top 25%.
You don't need socialist policies to help low-income workers.