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Tipsheet

New Poll: McCain Has Cause for Hope / Dems in More Trouble

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A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows John McCain is in pretty good shape, all things considered. 

As the poll implies, it is a pretty good bet that, had another Republican been nominated, they would now be facing a steeper hill than the one McCain currently faces.  Of course, McCain is helped by the continued Democratic in-fighting.  Still, considering the political environment, he is doing very well ...

Here are some important things of note (via the McCain campaign):

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  • Despite a tarnished Republican brand, John McCain enjoys a remarkably strong image ratio of 47 Fav/27 Unfav. 
  • A couple findings in the new poll capture how conflicted Americans are. By a 13-point margin, 50% to 37%, registered voters say they would prefer a Democrat to be elected president. When asked to choose specifically between Arizona Sen. McCain and either Democrat, the results in each case are a statistical tie.
  • "Americans can visualize John McCain behind the desk in the Oval Office," said Mr. [Democratic pollster Peter] Hart. 
  • The issues environment remains very treacherous for Republicans as a whole.

Update:  The deeper I dig into this poll, the more troubling it is for the Dems ...

  • Bill Clinton's favorability rating is now negative 3.  His popularity has tanked among African-American voters.
  • The black/white divide is huge.  Obama is getting 90% of the black vote.  Black voters don't seem to be interested in supporting Hillary..
  • ALSO more importantly... Hillary supporters will not be satisfied if obama is the nominee.
  • Also, look for the data on whether dem voters think a "hillary super-delegate" win would make her a legitimate nominee.  Only 38% said no.  29% said yes.  28% have no opinion either way.
  • And Hillary wins the "if your primary were held today" question 47-43.
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