Too often, we go from state-to-state analyzing who will win -- without ever thinking about how someone gets to the nomination. This thought-provoking email from a knowledgable DC insider is worth considering:
Because I'm a junkie, I set about attempting to analyze the remaining calendar. For the hell of it, let's say for now that Huckabee wins SC, Rudy wins FL and Fred gets out (not such crazy assumptions). If so, seems to me Feb 5 sets up extremely well for ... Rudy and Huckabee with several of their home/border states as well as other moderate and southern states voting that day -- Rudy: NY, NJ, CT, DE, CA, IL; Huck: AR, AL, GA, TN, MO, OK.
Question is will they have the money to compete?? Maybe Mar 4 sorts this out??
I've been a critic of Rudy's strategy, but the truth is, he really is well-positioned to win a large number of states -- especially if he wins Florida.
Might we enter into February 5th with Huckabee having just won SC -- and Rudy having just won FL? If so ...