On My Predictions

Matt Lewis | August 12, 2007 7:36 AM

My predictions weren't perfect, but they also weren't bad. My biggest mistake was removing Huckabee from 2nd place, and swapping him with Brownback (which I did when a source of mine from Iowa talked me into the fact that Brownback was better organized).

Clearly, in this case, charisma trumped organization. In the debates, Huckabee earned his status as leader of the second tier. These results confirm that.

... Ron Paul was, as I wrote, the wild card. We were all waiting to see if his grassroots could work the same magic that has propelled him to win some online polls. I think this proves that being organized online is one thing, but it's not the same as putting boots on the ground. Still, his finish is better than one would have thought six months ago.

... I also underestimated Tancredo's anti-illegal immigrant position, which obviously resonated with many Iowa Straw Poll voters.

... Tommy Thompson visited all 99 counties. As much as I always hope this tactic will work, it never does. If you wonder why candidates stay in the populated areas, it's because that's where the votes are.

... As I predicted, candidates like Fred, Newt, Rudy, and McCain finished at the end of the pack.

Is it time for Duncan Hunter to get out of dodge?