Fresh off a New York Times/Siena College survey that showed President Biden trailing former President Trump in five of the six most important swing states ahead of the 2024 election, Emerson College released a new poll Thursday with similar results.
Six statewide surveys find Biden falling behind Trump in hypothetical matchups in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, though he is leading the 45th president in Michigan. In the Times poll, Trump was ahead of Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, while Biden was ahead in Wisconsin.
SWING STATE POLLING:
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) November 9, 2023
AZ: Trump 43%, Biden 41%
GA: Trump 47%, Biden 40%
MI: Biden 43%, Trump 41%
NV: Trump 46%, Biden 39%
PA: Trump 46%, Biden 43%
WI: Trump 44%, Biden 43%
Oct. 30-Nov. 4, 2023, n=1,000 per state, +/-3%https://t.co/jjwHwKPxZy pic.twitter.com/wfgb0DBvKT
The Emerson survey also found Trump ahead of Biden among registered voters, 45 percent to 41 percent, though 14 percent were undecided, and he led the incumbent 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, with 9 percent undecided.
“Biden is generally underperforming his 2020 support with voters under 30, whereas Trump has locked in his support with middle-aged voters,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement. “Likely voters under 30 break for Biden over Trump by eight points across these six state polls, 47% to 39%, with 14% undecided. Trump’s base of support lies with the 50-64 year old general election voters, who support him over Biden by a 13-point margin, 52% to 39%, while likely voters over 65 are evenly split between the two candidates: 46% to 46%.”
Among Trump supporters, 44 percent said inflation is the top issue followed by the economy and jobs (27 percent), while Biden voters were more divided, with 21 percent agreeing inflation was the No. 1 issue, followed by the economy and jobs (17 percent) and threats to democracy (16 percent).
Though the Times survey had Democrats "panicking," former Obama adviser Jim Messina said it was still too early to give the findings much weight.
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