The underdog with the passionate supporters has a better chance when turnout is high. If its just the regular primary voters who are heading to the polls, they are probably not voting for the new guy. That means Ayotte should be in the lead. But he's not: 25% of precincts are reporting, with Lamontagne leading Ayotte 42-37.
In Rep. Shea-Porter's district, Frank Guinta beat out several GOP primary competitors; Guinta has been a front-runner for quite some time.