A new poll shows that Republicans might have a decent shot at keeping control of the Senate in the midterm elections.
Democrats are hoping to win back control of at least one chamber of Congress after their humiliating losses in 2024.
From The Hill:
Democrats are competitive in six key Senate battlegrounds, but Republicans still hold the edge in the fight for the upper chamber, according to new polling from The New York Times and Siena.
The New York Times/Siena Polls found Democrats leading the Senate races in North Carolina, where Democrat Roy Cooper is battling Republican Michael Whatley to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), and in Maine, where progressive Graham Platner hopes to oust Sen. Susan Collins (R).
Cooper boasts the biggest lead among the six battlegrounds surveyed, with 50 percent to Whatley’s 43 percent. Platner, at 49 percent, was up 2 points over Collins.
Democrat James Talarico and state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) are tied at 47 percent each in Texas, where Democrats are relishing the fact that the controversial prosecutor got the GOP nod over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R).
Democrats were competitive in three more states, but trailed Republicans by slim margins.
In Iowa, Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek is 2 points behind President Trump-backed Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) for retiring Sen. Joni Ernst’s (R) seat, with 46 percent and 48 percent, respectively.
Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola is just 2 points behind incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) in a hypothetical Senate showdown, with 45 percent and 47 percent, respectively. The Last Frontier’s primary is in mid-August.
And in Ohio, Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown is 3 points behind Sen. Jon Husted (R), with 47 percent and 50 percent, respectively. Along with Alaska and Maine, it’s one of just a few true toss-ups in the high-stakes fight for Senate control.
If I were forced to guess, I'd say that Dems’ most likely path to a Senate majority is to hold all current seats, and flip NC, ME, OH, and AK.
— Hunter📈🌈📊 (@StatisticUrban) June 11, 2026
But Texas might, might get interesting if Latino realignment really comes through. I'm skeptical on IA and NE. Very skeptical on MT.
Democrats have a few main paths they could follow to regain control of the Senate. The GOP holds a 53-47 majority, which means Democrats need a net gain of four seats to dominate the upper chamber.
In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper is leading in the early polls against his Republican opponent. Graham Platner in Maine is running even with incumbent Sen. Susan Collins despite the fact that his scandals outnumber the grains of sand in the Sahara.
Hear me out: If Democrats aim at winning a supermajority of the electorate, control of the House won’t hinge on the handful of seats decided by redistricting fights.
— Adam Jentleson (@AJentleson) May 8, 2026
Dems will also need a supermajority in the Senate to have any real hope of shifting the balance of SCOTUS and… https://t.co/0uhKhUPX6T
Democrats would also have to hold their competitive seats in Georgia and the open seat in Michigan. If they can also pull off upsets in Ohio with Sherrod Brown and Alaska with Mary Peltola, there is a path to victory.
In the House, Democrats have a better chance. They need only a net gain of at least three seats to win the majority. In almost every midterm election, the president’s party has lost seats in the House and this pattern could hold again in 2026.
Democrats are focusing hard on swing districts that were decided by just a few thousand votes in 2024 as they seek to connect with voters frustrated by economic concerns, healthcare, and other issues.
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