New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is in a precarious position when it comes to her prospects for reelection. If Republicans play their cards right, they could win the governor’s seat in 2026 for the first time since 2006.
A brand new GrayHouse poll shows the governor has multiple vulnerabilities heading into the upcoming election. So far, it appears Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) to be the dominant candidate that could vie for the governorship, if she decides to run.
If Stefanik enters the race, she will become the Republican nominee, according to the poll. The lawmaker is trouncing her potential competition with 44 percent of the primary vote. Mike Lawler only received seven percent while Bruce Blakeman got five percent. Her name recognition could help her easily get the GOP nod.
Moreover, “Stefanik has a clear advantage in image among Republican voters, with a net favorability of +47 (56% favorable, 9% unfavorable),” according to GrayHouse.
She also “has significantly higher statewide recognition (69%) compared to Lawler (58%) and Blakeman (36%).”
Stefanik also scores high among Independents, which could be the deciding factor in the race. “She also maintains a positive net favorability of +10 with Independents, compared to +2 for Lawler and -1 for Blakeman,” the report noted.
🚨 BREAKING: Elise Stefanik (R) trails New York Governor Kathy Hochul (D) by just 6 points, 46%-40%, for the 2026 governor election - Gray House poll
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) April 28, 2025
Stefanik also leads a theoretical GOP primary by 37 points. pic.twitter.com/ukgsVlXBiG
New polling of 400 registered Republicans in New York state from GrayHouse shows that if Elise Stefanik were to run for Governor of NY, she would start as the clear frontrunner in the GOP primary, capturing 44% support- a 37 point lead over other potential candidates. pic.twitter.com/Z3hKHjU40Z
— Landon Wall (@LandonWall_) April 28, 2025
The survey also presented some horrible news for Hochul. A majority of New Yorkers – Democrats included – want a new governor.
“61% of voters statewide say it’s ‘time for someone new,’ including an overwhelming 75% of Independents and even 34% of Democrats,” GrayHouse explained.
Hochul’s approval rating is so underwater that it is keeping company with the Titanic wreckage. Her net job approval rating is -18 overall, with 36 percent approving and 55 percent disapproving.
Even further, Hochul is only leading Stefanik by six points currently. This should be much higher in a state like New York. “Across all tested matchups, Hochul fails to reach 47% support—a warning sign for an incumbent in a blue state.”
President Donald Trump increased his support in New York by 600,000 votes between the 2016 and 2024 elections. This could signal a major shift in the Empire State’s electoral landscape.
While New York remains a Democratic-leaning state, it has shifted noticeably to the right in recent years. In 2024, Harris won New York by just 13 points — the narrowest Democratic margin since 1992 — following Biden’s and Clinton’s 23-point victories.
“Should Congresswoman Elise Stefanik choose to enter the race for governor, she would begin the Republican primary in a dominant position and offer the GOP its strongest opportunity to defeat Governor Kathy Hochul in the 2026 general election,” the report noted.
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