HARRISBURG, PENNSYLVANIA -- On my radio show this week, one of the sharpest and most even-handed political analysts in the business relayed that based on what he's seeing and hearing, Democrats are fearful that the vital state of Pennsylvania might be "slipping away" from them in the election's final weeks. It's impossible to know if that's an accurate assessment of not, but Josh Kraushaar offered it, rooted in data, campaign behavior, and his own reporting. Lo and behold, the very next day, Politico published a story about Democratic dysfunction and angst here in the Keystone State. The piece may just be indicative of Democrats' angst and signature 'bed-wetting' tendencies, overreaching to less-than-ideal developments.
But it certainly reads like pre-criminations about what some of them see coming:
“Complaints about outreach to voters of color are common in Democratic politics in Pennsylvania. But this level of frustration and finger-pointing is not.” https://t.co/V6vZVodjus pic.twitter.com/GeTBDkPNvJ
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 16, 2024
Top Democrats in Pennsylvania are worried Vice President Kamala Harris’ operation is being poorly run in the nation’s biggest battleground state. They say some Harris aides lack relationships with key party figures, particularly in Philadelphia and its suburbs. They complain they have been left out of events and surrogates haven’t been deployed effectively. And they’ve urged Harris staff in private meetings to do more to turn out voters of color. Some are even pointing fingers at Harris’ Pennsylvania campaign manager, Nikki Lu, who they say lacks deep knowledge of Philadelphia, where the vice president must drive up voter turnout in order to win. “I have concerns about Nikki Lu,” said Ryan Boyer, who, as the first Black head of the city’s influential building trades council, is one of the most powerful labor leaders in the state. “I don’t think she understands Philadelphia.” ... For some Pennsylvania Democratic elected officials, party leaders and allies, 20 of whom POLITICO spoke to for this article, they’re anxious the in-state operation has set them back...
In recent weeks, the in-state campaign has brought on new staff, which has given some Democrats more confidence. But they fear they are running out of time...“I feel like we’re going to win here, but we’re going to win it in spite of the Harris state campaign,” said a Democratic elected official in the state, who, like others for this story, was granted anonymity to speak freely about a sensitive matter. “Pennsylvania is such a mess, and it’s incredibly frustrating.” ... complaints about outreach to voters of color are common in Democratic politics in Pennsylvania. But this level of frustration and finger-pointing is not. A second Democratic elected official in the state described Lu as “AWOL.” A Pennsylvania Democratic strategist said that Lu “empowers a culture” in the campaign that has left elected officials feeling unengaged and disrespected.
Here's the full story. None of this means Trump is bound to win Pennsylvania, and Democrats still enjoy dramatic ballot and ground operational advantages that could prove pivotal in a tightly-contested state. But a lot of the conduct, decisions, and collective 'body language' of the Harris camp has not exactly been projecting a lot of confidence lately. Not in Pennsylvania, and not elsewhere:
“Everybody’s worried. I’d be considered a supporter and I’m worried” https://t.co/ip9EFDSKZX
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 16, 2024
MICHIGAN DEMOCRAT: "I see shades of the Hillary Clinton campaign with the arrogance of a Democrat Party out of touch with the electorate." pic.twitter.com/VzT4c8Sq8I
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 16, 2024
This sort of thing, at a micro level, probably doesn't help -- especially for people who feel like the Biden-Harris operation is arrogant and aloof. A vignette out of a Washington Post article entitled, "In a Michigan city, Harris has failed to catch fire with Black men:"
oofhttps://t.co/8cGffMIuvd pic.twitter.com/L1JtItGCoJ
— Andrew Stiles (@AndrewStilesUSA) October 16, 2024
These updated polling charts are interesting, comparing polling averages in key states in 2016, 2020, and now. Notice how Michigan and Pennsylvania are looking at the moment:
20 days until Election Day! Here’s how the 2024 presidential race looks compared to the same date during the 2020 and 2016 elections, according to the RCP poll averages. pic.twitter.com/hscPfzV9wl
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) October 16, 2024
Think the election is extremely close? So does Nate Silver:
Today's update. It's now literally 50/50.https://t.co/vsGVG18HHI pic.twitter.com/IynflBiMWb
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 15, 2024
Remarkable, and reflective of a dug-in electorate with very few undecideds:
This race is remarkable for its closeness but also the insane stability of polls here in the closing weeks. I threw together a quick chart looking at the National RCP averages post-Labor Day going back to 2008.
— Kristen Soltis Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) October 16, 2024
This race just doesn’t seem to budge on average! pic.twitter.com/iecuUVyJ5e
I'll leave you with the 'closing argument' ad from Trump that I've been waiting and calling for. They can put out other iterations -- perhaps sprinkling in Biden praising her as integral to everything their administration has done -- but this is executed simply and well, with her words as the star of the show:
The ad that became inevitable the moment the words left her lips: pic.twitter.com/cW2gprfx8B
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 16, 2024
