Skepticism Alert: Beware of This Democrat's Warning About a Key Battleground State

Ahead of tonight's Vice Presidential debate, I want to sprinkle cold water on some Trump supporters' excitement over what's being billed as a caught-on-camera admission, or dire warning, from a swing state Democrat. As Madeline covered yesterday, Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin -- who is also her party's nominee for that state's open Senate seat -- recently warned donors that she was "not feeling my best right now about where we are on Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan." She revealed to those on the call that her own campaign's internal polling shows Harris "underwater" in the state. Team Trump eagerly pushed out that video, resulting in what I view as some premature and misplaced virtual high-fiving among Republicans and Trump fans.

Suffice it to say that I view this 'leak' skeptically, for reasons I'll explain below. Here's what Slotkin said:

🚨🚨Michigan Democrat Senate nominee Elissa Slotkin: "I'm not feeling my best right now about where we are in Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan. We have her under water in our polling." pic.twitter.com/hmMQEZwD94
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) September 29, 2024

Granted, Michigan looks competitive. Harris has led in most recent polls, but Trump has been up in a small handful -- and as we mentioned yesterday, the latest New York Times/Siena survey shows an exact tie in their full field numbers (a significant improvement for Trump over their previous findings in the state). Four years ago, Joe Biden underperformed his RealClearPolitics polling average by roughly a point-and-a-half while carrying Michigan by just shy of three percentage points. Harris' current advantage in the state is about a point-and-a-half, on average. If another public polling miss benefits Trump this year, the Wolverine State could go red. All that said, I'm not convinced the Slotkin admission should be taken at face value. At all. As I asked on social media, was she engaged a common psychological manipulation of donors, i.e., painting a darker picture for their consumption in order to motivate them to open up their wallets a little wider? She knew she was on camera. Would she really be spilling very sensitive information about how the polls everyone else sees are over-stating Kamala Harris' standing in her state?

Also: Who did the leaking, and why? Their identity and motives matter here. Notice she said Harris was "underwater," which could mean she's losing to Trump in their internal data. But it could also mean that Harris' favorables are lower than her unfavorables in the state, which is not at all the same as saying she's on track to lose it. Her phrasing about 'not feeling her best right now' could read as a genuine admission of concern, couched in soft language, as to avoid conveying panic. Or it could be a typical political formulation designed to relay that the race isn't as comfortable as some confident Democrats may be saying, so please write that check. A veteran GOP operative is on the same wavelength, it seems, pointing out the difference between how each side's donors think and respond to various appeals:

I’d caution over-reading this. She was pitching for $. One diff b/t D & R donors is how they react to horse race. You tell D donors “I’m going to lose!” & they flood money. Trump may win MI but this isnt necessarily the proof that Rs, accustomed the PE donor mindset, think. https://t.co/uoUKsVTpyN
— Brad Todd (@BradOnMessage) September 30, 2024

Finally, with the anniversary of the October 7 terrorist massacre of Israelis approaching, how will incidents like this play politically in this important swing state?