Analysis: Is the Senate Picture Brightening for Republicans?

We alluded to the Senate landscape in our Wednesday post, in which I exclusively shared high-quality private polling from six important states in the fight for control of the upper chamber -- four of which (Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) are also key in the presidential race. That polling, which had looked rather bleak for Republicans about a month ago, showed Donald Trump tied in all four of those states, with three corresponding Senate races now within the margin of error. The findings also suggested Republican Bernie Moreno has surged into a tie in Ohio's key race, with another GOP challenger now clearly leading in Montana.

Sure enough, the very next day, a well-known and bipartisan pollster published data from Montana that nearly exactly mirrors the private polling I reported:

📊 MONTANA poll by Fabrizio Ward (R) & Binder Research (D) for AARP

Senate
🟥 Sheehy: 51% (+6)
🟦 Tester: 45%

Full Ballot
🟥 Sheehy: 49% (+8)
🟦 Tester: 41%
🟪 Daoud: 4%
🟩 Downey: 1
——
President
🟥 Trump 56% (+15)
🟦 Harris 41%
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#138 (1.7/3.0) | 8/25-29 | 600 LV… pic.twitter.com/TSg9ery9tP
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 5, 2024

In this data set, Trump is up 15 points in Montana, while Tim Sheehy is in front of incumbent Democrat Jon Tester by eight points. In the numbers I brought you earlier in the week, Trump was up 17, with Sheehy up nine. Extremely similar. If Sheehy, a decorated combat veteran, can oust his Biden/Harris/Schumer rubber stamp opponent, that could clinch a Senate majority for Republicans. The West Virginia open seat has basically been conceded by the Democrats, which would get the GOP to 50. Montana would be 51, if Sheehy can bring it home. It's probably premature to say the only two targeted Republican Senate incumbents who are up this cycle are safe, but they're leading. Ted Cruz is up by roughly seven points over his liberal challenger in Texas, and Florida's Rick Scott is ahead by nearly six points in a state where Republicans' registration advantage has now soared to one million voters.

If Cruz and Scott hold serve, and Republicans gain West Virginia and Montana (the latter is hardly a done deal), where are their other opportunities? As mentioned above, Ohio stands out as the next-reddest state in which a vulnerable Democrat could lose. In Pennsylvania, that race has really tightened, as incumbent Democrat Bob Casey -- who has shed any meaningful hints of moderation or maverick status -- is trying to fight off a strong challenge from businessman and veteran Dave McCormick. In the polling I shared this week, McCormick is now statistically tied with Casey. And guess what? On Wednesday, CNN put out a poll showing that race exactly tied, 46-46. McCormick is running a smart, aggressive race, and it's finally looking like it's paying off. Some polling is also showing Wisconsin close, with Michigan also in play, though Republicans have work to do, and it's unclear what, if any, 'coattails' effect we'll see. Even in deep blue Maryland, Larry Hogan is holding his own. Recent polling has shown him slightly trailing, tied, or a bit ahead.

If Trump wins the election, it's not too much of a stretch to envision a Senate Republican majority with up to 53 or 54 seats arriving with him. If he loses, the GOP will be praying for 51 or maybe 52 seats. And since I referenced fresh CNN polling above, here's what their new battleground data shows at the top of the ticket:

Harris is ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan (some other polls show Wisconsin tied, and Trump ahead in three separate Michigan surveys within the last week), while Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania are tied. Trump is up in Arizona. I'll leave you with this question: Is it true that Team Harris is already regretting their Vice Presidential selection?