The Biden campaign was bleeding out, pummeled by weeks of fratricidal attacks from within the Democratic Party and from its top appendage, the 'news' media. Finally, the president hit his threshold for political pain and relented, announcing his withdrawal from the race in a letter posted online. Shortly thereafter, he endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to succeed him in the role as Democratic nominee. Many in the party were anxious about this choice, too, but the painful era of internal warring had to end. Dislodging Biden had been ugly enough; also trying to jettison Harris would have been a giant risk, even if a completely fresh ticket is what many elite Democrats ardently wanted. Prolonging the drama, and introducing new acrimony, was disposed of as an option, so the coalescence was rapid. Doubts and concerns aside, they're with her. Stuck with her, perhaps, but they're with her. How should Republicans respond to all of this?
Allow me to make a few points before getting to my thoughts on how to prosecute the most effective case against Harris. First, it's a bit ridiculous seeing some people pretending that Republicans are "panicked" over Biden's ouster, and Harris' ascension. It's true that there has been something of a volcanic reaction to these unprecedented machinations, but that's natural and expected. For months, the Trump campaign has been running against the Democrats' incumbent and presumptive nominee, who dominated his party's primary process. Trump built a stable lead over him. With the general election well underway, the Democrats' sustained lie about Biden's condition -- replete with indignant gaslighting about "cheap fakes" -- fell apart during the opening minutes of a far-earlier-than-usual presidential debate. Caught in their extremely damaging lie, Democrats decided they needed a do-over. The election results from their primary would be discarded, and the man their voters selected to stand for another term was relentlessly hounded out of the race. They lied to protect him, for The Cause, and when the utility of that lie abruptly expired, they tossed him overboard, against his will, for the same Cause. They nullified their own election.
It's entirely reasonable for Republicans to react negatively to all of this. It's not a 'freakout' or 'meltdown.' It's an objection to yet more ruthless, dirty, power-above-all behavior by the Democrats, who fancy themselves the civic-minded, pro-democracy party. They're frauds. Pointing that out is accurate and fair. Democratic voters likely won't care that their entire primary simply disregarded after the fact because they're on board for the Cause, but the maneuvering should serve to further motivate Republican voters. The other side will do anything. Massive turnout is required to defeat them. I also think Democrats' eager rejection of their own democratic process, hurling 14.4 million ballots into the sea because they were no longer seen as helpful to the party's desired outcome, undercuts the apocalyptic 'democracy' messaging that proved rather effective with independent voters in the 2022, staving off a red wave. There's some political upside for Republicans to make this case, but bellyaching about it too strenuously for too long isn't productive. Make the argument, let it hit with those with whom it might be effective, then move on. Biden is out. Harris is in. Adjust. (I'll explore the question of whether Trump should agree to debate Harris separately).
Second, overconfidence is the enemy. Kamala Harris can win this election. I also thought Biden could still win, for what it's worth. Trump's strong polling position arose from widespread unhappiness with the performance of the Harris-Biden administration and the direction of the country, as well as pervasive doubts about a deteriorating 81-year-old president's ability to do the job now, let alone for another four years. The former vulnerability applies to Harris in spades; the latter does not (for what it's worth, I don't think the cynical trolling about Trump being too old from people who were passionately defending Biden up until the debate will be effective). The deflation of enthusiasm and fundraising that accompanied Biden's descent, and subsequent in-fighting, will largely be reversed. Harris will pull in towers of cash, with mega-donors back in the fold, too. Much of this is partisan catharsis and relief after weeks of acrimony and fear. But Biden's politically-lethal softness among Democrats may no longer be the emergency that it was. Democrats are going to will themselves into a state of unity and enthusiasm.
This matters in the polling, as some disaffected and demoralized party faithful and aligned demographic groups come back into the fold. A polling bounce is very possible, if not probable. It matters more for fall turnout. The advantages Democrats already held on ballot operations have not disappeared. Neither have corresponding Republican weaknesses. Despite his base's adoration and a clear uptick in favorability and retrospective job approval ratings, Donald Trump is not a broadly popular figure. Harris can win. But she shouldn't. It's true that Kamala Harris is famously toxic to work for, resulting in exceptionally high turnover within her political operation. Columnist George Will once described her cringeworthy word salads as redolent of a student trying to offer a book report on a book she hadn't read. By politicians' standards, she is not a talented BSer. Perhaps the hype machine going into overdrive around her with imbue Harris with a new sense of confidence, and she'll manage to take her game to another level, but her awkward behavior, meandering answers, and anecdotes like this suggest she shares critics' doubts about her own abilities:
Going to the Veep well is done, but my Lord. 👇🏻 She also didn’t want to do the Gridiron Dinner, which I guess runs the risk of embarrassing yourself in front of peers, but wouldn’t be public except to leak a couple decent jokes a comedian wrote for her. This timidity is a lot. https://t.co/JuabqnJh8h pic.twitter.com/40rx2tJ8RX
— Mary Katharine Ham (@mkhammer) July 22, 2024
I don't think it's smart for Republicans to repeat gossip about her sexual history within the realm of California politics, or to hammer on the theme that she's a 'DEI' candidate. It's true that Biden spoke publicly about selecting a woman of color, then later made those identity factors literal requirements for any Supreme Court nomination he might name. It's also true that Harris is an underwhelming intellectual figure, having failed the bar exam on her first try, but it's not as if Biden was some sort of brilliant leading light either. Focusing too much on such things, mocking her signature laugh, painting her as a lightweight, and noting her previous political failures won't be sufficient. More on that below. But it does happen to be true that Harris was so off-putting and un-compelling as a presidential candidate that her 2020 run didn't even make it to 2020. That judgment was rendered by her own party's voters. In her only real statewide run against a Republican, she barely won in...in California:
People who think Harris can run as Kamala the Cop because of how the 2020 Dem primary went seem to be forgetting one of the key reasons why she almost lost her only race to a Republican in California back in 2010. pic.twitter.com/nflnuKvRDC
— John McCormack (@McCormackJohn) July 22, 2024
The GOP almost beat her in 2010 because of her awful record. She ran way behind the rest of the Democratic ticket. Once again, that approach holds the key to defeating her nationally, this time for all the marbles. Democrats rallied to Biden in 2020 because they became gripped by the fear that a left-wing nominee like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren would lose to Trump. Once elected, rather than governing as the moderate, unifying agent of normalcy that he presented to voters, Biden (or the people calling the shots at the White House) raced leftward. He has been lurching to the left even these last few weeks, embracing insane national rent control and SCOTUS "reforms," in a failed effort to save his presidential campaign from Democratic vultures. In short, Biden governed more like Harris campaigned before her bid came to a premature and inglorious end. She was just worse and less appealing in the hard-left lane than Sanders or Warren, so her support collapsed in 2019.
But thanks to that race, she's on the record in favor of the defunding police and empowering criminals (a reckless pander that contradicted her only-partially-deserved 'tough prosecutor' image), ending private health insurance for 100 million Americans, forcing taxpayers to fund illegal immigrants' healthcare plans, de-criminalizing illegal immigration, destroying the Senate filibuster to pass the radical $93 trillion 'Green New Deal,' and requiring taxpayers to fund elective abortions throughout all nine months of pregnancy. She demanded a conversation about whether terrorists like the Boston Marathon bomber should have the right to vote. If there was a hardcore left-wing idea in her base's bloodstream, she ingested it. She is far to Biden's left. His failed policies would have been even worse if she'd gotten her way. Their administration would have been more openly hostile to Israel.
And then there's the border crisis. Harris owns a big chunk of Americans' inflation pain and had a hand in all the other Biden-Harris messes, including on foreign policy. But Biden's most egregious disaster has been the border, and she was his designated Border Czar. Years of deflections, lies and excuses led to ten million illegal crossings on Border Czar Harris' watch, including many violent criminals, gang members, cartel figures, and suspected terrorists. The recent spate of violent crimes committed against American citizens by illegal immigrants, and alarming ISIS and terrorism-related threats at the border, lands at the doorstep of Kamala Harris. She was also among the most central figures in the 'conspiracy of silence' cover-up about Biden's national security-threatening frailty and disorientation. She was one of Biden's most prominent, and therefore dishonest, 'validators' on this front.
Kamala Harris will lie about anything, for political purposes. She was second in command in the failed Biden-Harris administration, which resembled Harris' 2019 vision for the presidency more than it did Biden's 2020 pitch to voters. And she's much too extreme for average voters. Lies about Biden, ownership of Harris-Biden failures, and ideological extremism: Republicans should overwhelmingly focus on these themes, of which there are damning trails of recent video footage. Her talent deficiencies and wince-inducing blatherings will speak for themselves. I'll leave you with Harris receiving hosannas from her natural political habitat, as well as a 'baseline' Trump v. Harris poll, taken before Biden dropped out, by a generally Democrat-friendly pollster. It looks similar to Biden's general standing. Perhaps the huge shake-up at the top of the ticket will reshape the race as voters adjust to what's happened. Or maybe not:
San Francisco, fittingly, is very excited about Kamala Harris https://t.co/EZbuxM0IGl
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) July 22, 2024
🇺🇲 2024 GE: @QuinnipiacPoll
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 22, 2024
🟥 Trump: 45%
🟦 Harris: 41%
🟨 RFK Jr: 6%
🟪 Other: 4%
Independents
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟦 Harris: 32%
🟨 RFK Jr: 11%
🟪 Other: 7%
#19 (2.8/3.0) | July 19-21 | 1,257 RV https://t.co/dR9PzUOOIl https://t.co/Q1gIXgXOp2 pic.twitter.com/OhJjihTzg3
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