By now, most political junkies are well aware of the handful of states that will decide the 2024 presidential election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Some other swing states (and even districts in proportional allocation states) may come into play, but those appear to be the big seven. It's debatable which is the most important of those seven, but there's a strong case to be made for the Keystone State. Donald Trump narrowly won it, clinching his 2016 upset victory. Joe Biden narrowly won it back four years later. And the 2024 battle is looking, well, narrow once again. One way of looking at the map is to note that Trump has a plausible path or two to the presidency without Pennsylvania -- but it's tougher to see one for Biden, even if you squint.
On that score, the prominent pollster associated with NBC News and Marist is out with fresh PA numbers this week, all taken after former President Trump's felony convictions in New York. Result:
New Marist poll of Pennsylvania:
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) June 12, 2024
Trump 47
Biden 45
RFK 3
Stein 1
West 1https://t.co/FJofOWQJb4
The survey shows Democrats slightly leading on the generic ballot in Pennsylvania, and the incumbent Democratic Senator up six on his GOP challenger -- but Trump is up by two points. He has a small edge among independents, and crucially has an advantage among the key 'double disapprover' demographic among whom Biden dominated four years ago:
The PENNSYLVANIA double-haters -- those who dislike both Biden and Trump -- swinging towards Trump:
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) June 12, 2024
Trump 35
Biden 24
Kennedy 19 https://t.co/21XQnZSHtV
Why the change of heart among these important voters? Perhaps they just look back rather fondly on Trump's governing results, especially in light of what has happened under Joe Biden:
Pennsylvania Poll: Were you and your family better off during...?
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 12, 2024
Trump's presidency: 53%
Biden's presidency: 44%
—
Was the Country better off during...?
Trump's presidency: 52%
Biden's presidency: 46%
#6 (2.9/3.0) | 6/3-6 | 1,137 RV | ±3.6% https://t.co/QUEH6cwL9p pic.twitter.com/E6T4s5sH4M
A separate national poll bears this out, too:
📊 Monmouth Poll: Looking back, do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump did when he was president?
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 12, 2024
January 2021*
Approve 41% (NET -15)
Disapprove 56%
JUNE 2024
Approve 47% (NET -3)
Disapprove 50%
—
*Poll was conducted shortly after Trump left office.
—
538: #5… https://t.co/cLCrNtOcEV pic.twitter.com/nNOovJA5Mr
Trump's retrospective job approval rating is almost even. Biden's current job approval rating in the same data set is underwater by 18 points. And that's not an outlier at all:
Joe Biden's approval rating has hit 37.4% in 538's average—an all-time low. https://t.co/sF8buXFup9 pic.twitter.com/lZcLTxOOw2
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) June 10, 2024
As for other national polling, things are looking...pretty status quo overall:
📊 NATIONAL POLL: YouGov/Economist
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 12, 2024
🟥 Trump: 42% [=]
🟦 Biden: 40% [-2]
🟨 RFK Jr: 3%
🟪 Other: 3%
Independents: Trump 37-26%
---
• May 28: Trump +1
• June 4: Tie
• June 10: Trump+2
—
Generic Ballot
🟥 GOP 44% [=]
🟦 DEM 44% [-1]
[+/- change vs June 4]
—
Extremely/very… pic.twitter.com/aTJkvG1Cgr
📊 NATIONAL POLL: @cygnal
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 12, 2024
🟥 Trump: 47% [+1]
🟦 Biden: 45% [=]
Always vote: Trump 48-44%
—
🟥 Trump: 41% [=]
🟦 Biden: 38% [=]
🟨 RFK Jr: 8% [-1]
🟨 West: 2%
🟩 Stein: 2%
—
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 45% [+1]
🟥 GOP: 45% [-1]
[+/- change vs May]
#67 (2.1/3.0) | 1,500 LV |… pic.twitter.com/UgPHWIPbcI
One Republican-aligned pollster shows Biden gaining several points into a virtual tie with Trump, while a Democratic pollster shows Biden ahead nationally but trailing in swing states. Speaking of swing states, I'll leave you not with Trump's modest but comfortable-looking lead in Florida, but his similar lead in Arizona, from a high-quality bipartisan pollster:
📊 ARIZONA GE: Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) for @AARPArizona
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 12, 2024
🟥 Trump: 50% (+6)
🟦 Biden: 44%
—
🟥 Trump: 45% (+8)
🟦 Biden: 37%
🟨 RFK Jr: 11%
🟩 Stein: 3%
🟪 Oliver: 0%
—
Senate
🟦 Gallego: 48% (+3)
🟥 Lake: 45%
⬜ Undecided: 7%
• Ages 50+: Lake 48-47%
•… pic.twitter.com/EDFh8TetvQ
Democrats can't be feeling great, but I'll return to my hobby horse once again and point out that Democrats are much better at ballot operations that Republicans are. And their base is much more likely to turn out no matter what. Trump will be counting on a lot of marginally-involved voters to actually show up. Democrats are crushing it among high-propensity voters, which is why a special Congressional election in Ohio (where Trump leads fairly comfortably) this week in a Trump +29 district ended up being uncomfortably close for Republicans. In a battle of the bases, the Left's base are fanatically-committed, disciplined voters. It's why Democrats easily won George Santos' seat months ago, and why OH-06 was much closer on Tuesday than it "should" have been. If GOP turnout underwhelms in November, the positive polls could prove to be a disastrous mirage. I'm not alone in thinking this way:
Ignore The Polls. Republicans Have A Major Voter Turnout Problem https://t.co/yz9um5rXrQ
— Ned Ryun (@nedryun) June 12, 2024
