There have been a lot of bad nights for the GOP since 2016, haven't there? A few days ago, we highlighted a headline-grabbing New York Times poll showing President Biden losing in an array of swing states, with voters in those battlegrounds preferring Trump and Republicans by wide margins on some of the biggest issues facing America -- the economy, first and foremost. Prices are up double digits since Biden took over, dissatisfaction with the economy is sky high, Americans are disgusted with the border crisis, the world is on fire and growing more unstable, and the Democrats are currently having an internal debate over support for Israel's war against Hamas. Between those realities and the polling results, one might be forgiven for assuming the GOP would roll in this week's relatively low-turnout, off-year elections. They did not.
As we saw in 2022, the public's appetite for what the GOP is currently selling is powerfully out of step with what the 'fundamentals' would suggest. Given abysmal economic perceptions and Biden's awful numbers, the opposition should be winning big, including pulling some eye-popping upsets. Instead, they're barely scraping by in a lot cases, and even losing ground elsewhere.
In Kentucky, the state's Democratic governor with a famous family name won re-election somewhat comfortably against a rising Republican figure, who was endorsed all along the way by Donald Trump, but is also a Mitch McConnell protege. The incumbent distanced himself from the national party brand, and ran dozens of points better than Biden's dreadful approval rating in the state. By fashioning himself as a moderate, and by performing well during major emergencies, Andy Beshear glided to an early victory call in a state Trump carried in 2020 by 26 percentage points. Other statewide GOP candidates cleaned up, but Beshear was given the breathing room from his party and its base to do and say what he needed to in order to win in a state with a very challenging partisan and ideological profile. By contrast, I'll note that Louisiana Republicans won back that governorship a few weeks ago, in a blowout.
In Mississippi -- again, in a very red state, in a very Biden-hostile national environment -- the incumbent Republican governor won re-election in a relative squeaker. His margin was a smidge worse than Beshear's in Kentucky. Beshear was swimming against the tide. Tate Reeves should have been swimming with it, in a state that went 58-41 for Trump in 2020. Reeves won by mid-single digits, an underperformance of his state's partisan profile, as well as other statewide Republicans on the ballot. Being very pro-Trump and Trump-endorsed in Mississippi didn't result in an easy waltz to victory, even in light of the Democrats' brand in the state, and Biden's very weak standing nationwide. That's another red flag for Republicans. Almost every election cycle since 2016 has been littered with them.
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In Virginia, Republicans hoped to hold the state's lower legislative chamber, which they narrowly controlled, while retaking the Senate. They did neither, relinquishing a handful of Assembly seats, and appear on track to only gaining a single Senate seat, falling shy of a majority. Gov. Glenn Youngkin is popular in the Commonwealth, and he campaigned hard for the GOP slate of candidates, quite a lot of whom were genuinely impressive. They ran a good, strong race. They had a unified message. They generally over-performed the partisan bent of their districts, especially compared to Biden's 2020 margins, but it just wasn't sufficient in enough places:
Youngkin's Rs *did* run strong campaigns in Virginia. Pending mail ballots, they're on track to win every seat that went for Biden by less than 8 points. A lot closer to 2021 than 2020.
— David Weigel (@daveweigel) November 8, 2023
But the 2024 savior/we cracked the abortion code hype makes it look like a debacle.
Youngkin 2021 vs. results in five closest 2023 Virginia senate races:
— John McCormack (@McCormackJohn) November 8, 2023
SD17: Youngkin+5, R+6
SD24: Youngkin+3, R+2
SD27: Youngkin+8, R+2
SD30: McAuliffe+4, D+4
SD31: Youngkin+0.6, D+6https://t.co/lwFqqxuicr
Democrats ran on a message of 'TRUMP MAGA ABORTION,' with some strategically promising to work with Youngkin, to demonstrate their reasonableness. They painted every GOP candidate in contested races as Trump acolytes, and they blasted the airwaves and social media with false claims that Republicans would ban every abortion in the state. Youngkin, who remains popular, has been pushing a very reasonable 15-week abortion limit with exceptions, which was the GOP counter-message (which polled fairly well). Even if that helped neutralize the issue somewhat, the Democratic base turned out, and Republicans fell short. The Democrats are projected to have one-seat majorities in Richmond -- 51/49 in the House, and 21/19 in the Senate (give or take, as some ballots are still being tabulated). Youngkin is well-liked. Biden is unpopular. Net/net, Youngkin's party lost ground, and Biden's gained. But don't throw Virginia Republicans' approach out with the bath water:
People are really missing the point here. It’s not a moral victory and no one’s pretending it is. But clearly, whatever Virginia Republicans are doing could be replicated in purple states where it might deliver actual wins. https://t.co/OB6DxTrcZF
— Tony (@realtonysm1th) November 8, 2023
Republicans would have more than 235 House seats if they did as well in 2022 as Virginia Republicans did last night https://t.co/ShORz5R0gu
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) November 8, 2023
In Ohio, voters adopted a truly radical initiative that not only enshrines abortion in the state constitution, it effectively allows legalized abortion through the moment of birth -- eliminating an array of popular pro-life protections enacted in the state over many years (including broadly-supported policies like parental notification when minors seek abortions). Proponents of this measure marketed it misleadingly, presenting it as the choice between some legalized abortions, especially in difficult circumstances like rape, and a total ban. Ohioans were led to believe this was an all-or-nothing scenario. Pro-lifers countered with facts about how extreme the actual amendment was, but they got clobbered in spending, and they lost. Gov. Mike DeWine tried to move the needle with some late ads, but it didn't break through.
It's worth noting that DeWine signed a six-week abortion restriction (now eliminated by the new amendment), then glided to re-election by 26 points months later. In that 2022 victory, he won almost half-a-million more votes than the abortion amendment received yesterday. But the Left's turnout, money advantage, and dishonest framing led to an atrocious change to the state's constitution (enacted with a simple majority vote, in a relatively low turnout, off-year cycle), making Ohio virtually indistinguishable from California on abortion. This is misaligned with actual public opinion on the issue, but the abortion lobby is having major success with this cynical, manipulative, but effective approach, winning in red-tinted heartland states like Kansas and Ohio. They're on offense, advertising their agenda as moderate pushback to protect some abortion access, but drafting the actual laws very radically. In response, conservatives and pro-lifers have been reactive, overwhelmed, out-gunned, and ineffective.
A few more scattered thoughts: (1) Sure, there were scattered victories for Republicans and conservative ideas across the country last night, including some pretty big surprises. It wasn't universally an awful night on the Right, but the GOP shouldn't need to be grasping at straws with Biden as unpopular as he is, and the electorate as pessimistic as it is. (2) The midterms, coupled with the latest off-year election results, may calm some of the Democratic panic about Biden running again in 2024. The data is dire for him, but his party keeps winning. If Biden is ultimately nominated and wins, the party's series of gambles and messaging decisions will have paid off in spades, over and over. But (3) while it may seem impossible to square Sunday's New York Times swing state polls with Tuesday's results, there's a plausible explanation for why they're not incompatible:
It used to be the case that Republicans performed very well in low-turnout and off-year elections, because their base was focused and enthusiastic and comprised of a lot of high-propensity voters. With the political realignment that's underway, the parties are changing. Republicans are becoming more blue collar, and more diverse, and less high-propensity. Since Trump was elected, educated, wealthier voters in the cities and suburbs have flocked to the Democrats. These are organized, high-propensity voters. This is a simplification, but it's useful:
Even better summary:https://t.co/CU20Zzd2tw
— Ben Domenech (@bdomenech) November 8, 2023
It's possible that Democrats are over-confident because their core base has been a lot more committed to showing up, en masse, ever since 2016 -- while the Republican base is shifting. In recent decades, higher turnout has generally benefited Democrats. It's now plausible that higher turnout and higher-profile elections will now draw more moderate-to-low-propensity voters to the polls in a way that benefits Republicans. Trump supporters will argue, not without reason, that Trump being on the ballot will help a lot next November. On the other hand, Trump is a proven turnout driver on the other side, and it's unclear how possible criminal convictions will scramble public opinion. There's a case to be made that Trump's presence on the ballot, specifically against Joe Biden, will maximize the GOP coalition's chances at winning (this would suggest otherwise, at least in theory). But that's an all-in gamble that could either pay off, or extend the party's Trump-ers losing streak, with everything at stake. Gulp. Finally, (4) once again, Democrats are the Money In Politics party, despite their rhetoric to the contrary:
Democrats out spent Republicans in every major 2023 race other than #MSGov. https://t.co/LqjrmLqslJ
— RRH Elections (@RRHElections) November 8, 2023
They've consistently outspent Republicans for 15 years now, which isn't always determinative, but it drives their message a lot more aggressively. Between that factor, and the 'news' media often acting as a Democratic Super PAC, it's a lot for the GOP to overcome. Especially in light of reports like this earlier in the fall (headline: 'RNC Denies Virginia GOP's Request for Cash') questions about the effectiveness, priorities, and stewardship of the RNC will likely grow louder. There has been a lot of losing. But the nation is polarized, and this takeaway is also true:
If we learned anything from the last few years, it’s that the difference between a “sweep” and “devastating loss” is 1-3 points. Everything we see suggests another close election.
— Amy Walter (@amyewalter) November 8, 2023
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