Don't Ignore These Underrated Conservative Victories in the Midterms

I've made a passing reference or two to this in previous posts, but it's worth highlighting separately: Conservatives won a slate of important judicial elections in Ohio and North Carolina last week, which will shape critical upcoming decisions over redistricting controversies ahead of 2024. Some jittery Republicans are already worrying that the party's 2022 success in New York House races, for instance, might be at least partially turned back by voters in that very blue state in a larger-turnout presidential year. That's possible, given the degree of GOP over-performance in some of those contests. But Republicans may also get their collective act together and pick off a number of seats that they arguably should have won this cycle elsewhere, perhaps mitigating of off-setting any reversion-to-norm in New York. The state-level Supreme Court victories in the Buckeye and Tar Heel states also increase the likelihood that Republican-drawn Congressional maps will survive judicial scrutiny, allowing the GOP to draw district lines that could result in a handful of new red-leaning districts being added to the pot. These are significant statewide wins that will have implications for the federal balance of power:

Rs got their Supreme Court victories in OH and NC. Likely has consequences for redistricting next year -- Ds had a good night in each state for House but worse maps may be on horizon as Rs build defenses to protect what looks like a fairly small majority
— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) November 9, 2022

Ohio:

Ohio Republicans won all three state supreme court races on Tuesday, which will extend the GOP's 36-year streak of holding a majority on the court and likely influence future decisions on redistricting, abortion and other key issues...Republican Justices Sharon Kennedy, Pat Fischer and Pat DeWine beat Democrats Jennifer Brunner, Terri Jamison and Marilyn Zayas, respectively, according to final unofficial election results...The Ohio Supreme Court's rulings determine how much Ohioans pay in taxes and on their utility bills, whether government records are made public, how business and insurance laws are applied and more. Two key issues likely to be in front of the court in 2023 are the state's six-week abortion ban law and redistricting...The 2022 election marked the first time that supreme court candidates had their political party affiliation next to their names on the ballot. That gave voters more guidance in contests that are often ignored or voted on based on vague familiarity with surnames.

North Carolina:

North Carolinians on Tuesday voted to shift the balance of power in the North Carolina Supreme Court to a conservative majority — a pivot that could have major ramifications for abortion restrictions, how future elections are conducted and which party’s congressional candidates will be sent to Washington, D.C. Voters elected Republicans Trey Allen and Court of Appeals Judge Richard Dietz to the state’s highest court, delivering Republicans the seats they needed to take the majority of the court, which currently favors Democrats 4-3...The incoming state Supreme Court justices will serve an eight-year term on the bench. They’ll be sworn into office in January. In 2024, one seat currently held by a Democrat will be up for grabs. The state Supreme Court has taken on a number of contentious issues in the past year, and it is all but assured to see new divisive cases in the years ahead. Among them could be abortion laws...Voting lines are drawn by the party controlling the state legislature. If the minority party or others find fault in those proposed boundaries, they often challenge them in court. The state’s latest voting lines were challenged, ultimately ending up before the high court. If challenges to new voting districts drawn by the state's Republican-controlled legislature reach the state Supreme Court, a more deferential group of justices could allow for a disproportionate share of Republican representation in the U.S. House...Adding to the GOP’s control of the North Carolina courts, Republicans won all four court of appeals races.

“Coming into the election, Democrats maintained a 4-3 advantage on the court, but with those losses, Republicans now hold a 5-2 advantage…the court will likely hear challenges to the next round of election maps prior to the 2024 races. With the Republican wins, that party is guaranteed a majority on the court until 2028," adds the Smoky Mountain News. While the GOP had a frustrating night in a number of respects, they had great performances in a number of states, including an epic drubbing of Democrats in Florida, and sweeps in places like Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina:

In North Carolina, Republicans swept all statewide races and nearly gained a legislative supermajority. The once-staunchly Democratic east saw 7 #ncleg districts flip, including Biden+10 HD32.@decunningham2 explains all the state's election results.https://t.co/lkcptbBYSR pic.twitter.com/pHEsDWDyvA
— Elections Daily (@Elections_Daily) November 14, 2022