We checked in on this race in early September, as Gov. Greg Abbott's feud with blue 'sanctuary' city mayors was heating up. It appeared as though the rumble over the border, plus other factors, were benefiting the incumbent, who led in a fresh poll at the time by seven percentage points. Since then, the border crisis fight -- and the high-profile busing stunt -- has only garnered more attention. As we pointed out in yesterday's post, a nationwide survey from NBC News shows Republicans holding a commanding advantage on the issues of border enforcement and immigration writ large, at (+36) and (+17), respectively. The challenge has been focusing enough attention on the rolling disaster as to make it a top-tier issue in the minds of voters who aren't already thinking about it. Americans disapprove of the border mess, with most calling it an "invasion." They trust Republicans to handle the issue better, but much of the most high-profile strain and difficulty has been borne by border states and communities, even as serious elements of the problem impact the entire country.
Governors Abbott, Ducey and now DeSantis are forcing Democrats to taste a small fraction of what their failing policies have been wreaking in their states for the better part of two years, successfully baiting these blue state officials and their journalist allies into volcanic responses. This has elevated the overall controversy, raising its profile and prominence during the final stretch of the election. And in Texas, at least, voters appear to be rewarding Abbott for forcing the issue. A new poll of the Lone Star State's gubernatorial contest measures an expanding lead for Abbott, especially among likely voters (the metric/screen that should be applied to all polling at this stage of an electoral cycle, as opposed to adults or registered voters):
NEW POLL: Greg Abbott holds 11-Point lead over Beto O'Rourke among likely voters in Texas Governor Race
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 19, 2022
TX Governor
(R) Greg Abbott 50% (+11)
(D) Beto O'Rourke 39%
UTTyler | 09/06-13 | 1,124 LV https://t.co/UMXWEjSEO7 pic.twitter.com/NozWPq1faf
Among registered voters, the broader category, Abbott's lead is nine points (47/38). When the likely voter screen is layered on, his margin pushes into double digits. For context, President Trump carried Texas by five-and-a-half points in 2020, with GOP Sen. John Cornyn winning re-election by nearly ten points. If Abbott can match or surpass Cornyn's margin this year, that would be a strong showing and something of a statewide blowout these days. Of course, Abbott has the advantage and disadvantage of running against this perpetual candidate:
Corpus Christi!
— Beto O'Rourke (@BetoORourke) September 18, 2022
Join me for a morning run along the water at 7:30. We’re meeting at the Selena Statue. Hope to see you there. pic.twitter.com/9qKPTbLLOu
Robert is just out for his normal morning run, everyone. In his button down shirt as one does. But tweets like this help oceans of cash to flow into Texas from out-of-state progressives. They are addicted to sending money to this guy. If O'Rourke loses again, I'd be curious to see a return-on-investment analysis of the donor dollars he's taken in over the course of his last three campaigns. Meanwhile, liberals continue to congratulate themselves over how kind and accommodating Martha's Vineyard's elite residents were toward 48 illegal migrants flown to their island by Gov. DeSantis. They mobilized for less than 48 hours before having the migrants sent elsewhere. But they can't stop talking about how amazing they are, with the news media eager to amplify their self-serving stories:
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Simply amazing https://t.co/l1a0GQb8Te pic.twitter.com/sISiRaHn1v
— Noah Pollak (@NoahPollak) September 19, 2022
So deeply 'enriching,' in fact, that they needed to be gone in less than two days. That was more than enough enrichment, thank you very much, then it was back to the island's regularly-scheduled unperturbed privilege. Perhaps women like this, who have been absolutely ignored by the national press, should fly up to the Vineyard to get her story told by any of the small army of journalists who've flocked to the Martha's Vineyard "crisis" beat:
This Eagle Pass, Texas business owner says “we’re completely overrun” and “helpless” due to Biden’s border crisis. pic.twitter.com/bo83XKmJiP
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) September 19, 2022
A business owner near the U.S. southern border said she was forced to sell her family honky-tonk after the venue was broken into on five separate occasions since February. "I worked alongside my father for 19 years," said Selena Buentello Price, the former second-generation owner of The Wagon Wheel, a local barbeque joint. "One break-in in 25 years." "From February to now, I've had five," Price said. "Not only has my business been broken into and ransacked—it's just the insecurity now, you don't feel safe at home anymore." Price said migrants arriving in Eagle Pass often look for shelter and supplies in vacant buildings. Her family restaurant, which had been shuttered since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, was a frequent stop.
She felt like she had no choice but to sell her small business, which has been in her family for decades, because she believes it's no longer safe to operate. After a single break-in in 20 years, they've experienced five since February alone. She attributes this to the border crisis and the chaos it's causing. This is just one vignette of suffering and dysfunction among countless others. But the national media believes the real story is the cruelty of Republican governors holding the mirror up to Democrats who support these disastrous policies -- and the ever-so-virtuous 'enrichment' of Martha's Vineyard residents. I'll leave you with this flashback:
One year ago. A reminder of what a real humanitarian crisis looked like in this small border town of 30,000. https://t.co/4mqSokIHAX
— Bill Melugin (@BillFOXLA) September 19, 2022
Also, in case you missed it, here's DeSantis landing haymakers:
— Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) September 16, 2022
DESANTIS: CA Governor Newsom’s “hair gel is interfering with his brain function." pic.twitter.com/REgvDfHHU3
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) September 16, 2022
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