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Tipsheet

His Race to Lose? Another Poll Shows Ron DeSantis Is Rolling in Florida

AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack

It was a very odd thing. For months – dating back to the winter – there were no public polls of the Florida gubernatorial race. We wrote about one of the last published surveys at the time. There was another one in the field at the end of February and early March. Both showed sizable leads for the incumbent. Since then? Nothing. Just understandable assumptions that Gov. Ron DeSantis was ahead by a good margin. With the Sunshine State's primaries finally looming, a few new polls have emerged. We told you about this one earlier in the week, as it garnered a fair amount of attention for a reason other than DeSantis' solid advantage: 

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This raised eyebrows over the Rubio number, which I simply do not take seriously. There was another recent poll (a Democratic internal) showing Rubio tied in his re-election quest, with DeSantis "only" up by five. That one seemed barely plausible. But as I said in this analysis, Rubio running double-digits behind DeSantis is simply not reality. Neither, in my view, is a subsequent survey purporting to show the incumbent senator up 11 points over his challenger. My best guess, I told some colleagues, was that DeSantis is leading in the high single digits – what would amount to a Florida blowout – and Rubio was not far behind. We'll see a lot more data out of Florida in the coming weeks, but here's another set of numbers that reflects what I've generally been hearing privately: 

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That Hispanics cross-tabs nugget is intriguing, but it's a small sub-sample within a relatively small sample. Nevertheless, DeSantis is sitting on an astounding nine-figure war chest (as that story notes, he's been devoting time and campaign cash to helping other candidates around the state and country) and is set to pulverize whomever the Democrats nominate over the air. Barring a stunning turn, he'll win re-election, and many 2024 watchers will be keeping a close eye on his victory margin. Something that he and other Republican governors will be touting are the jobs numbers in their pro-growth states, which have been fueling the employment growth that the Biden administration is trying to take credit for. These are not coincidences, via the RNC's research division: 


Even newly-installed GOP chief executives are getting in on the action


Since I mentioned the currently-less-than-stellar Senate picture above, I'll leave you with my analysis of Sen. Mitch McConnell's recent comments on the subject, as well as a piece of encouraging news for the GOP on that front: 

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