Near the beginning of my exclusive interview with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis yesterday, I asked him whether national Democrats and their allies are right to view him as a threat nationally. I also asked whether, say, a six-point win in a state like Florida would count as a 'blowout.' He avoided the second question with a 'who knows?' -- but did appear to at least somewhat agree with the premise that he's been a frequent target of criticism for political reasons:
"I think if you look at what we’ve done to fight back against Brandon so far, you know, we succeed. I mean the contrast between a doddering, quasi-senile president who has to have his press team clean up his remarks after every time he opens his mouth versus somebody like me who’s out there — I’m very direct, I say what I mean, I mean what I say, I lead and I get things done. You know, they understand that people view Florida as really being the leader of our country in many respects, we’re really leading the free world in many — I mean, I have people from Canada that will come here that will write in to me, Australia, Europe — and they say, we look to Florida as the new citadel of freedom. They’re not looking to Joe Biden for that because they know that he’s just not capable of producing the type of leadership that they do.”
A lot can change over the course seven-plus months -- and Republicans would be foolish to count any chickens, etc. -- but in light of the growing and historically-unprecedented voter registration advantage the Florida GOP is building, and new statewide polling, one wonders if my hypothetically-stated six-point 'blowout' margin might represent DeSantis' floor in 2022:
2022 #FLGov General Election Poll:
— PollTracker (@PollTrackerUSA) March 30, 2022
Ron DeSantis (R-Inc) 49% (+16)
Charlie Crist (D) 33%
.
Ron DeSantis (R-Inc) 49% (+19)
Annette Taddeo (D) 30%
.
Ron DeSantis (R-Inc) 51% (+24)
Nikki Fried (D) 27% @SaintLeoPolls ~ 500 LV ~ 2/28-3/12https://t.co/0LDWYZjwTa
In this survey (which has President Biden with a very generous 49 percent approval rating in Florida), DeSantis' job approval is 59 percent, higher than either GOP Senator (though both are also above 50 percent). By a 22-point margin, Floridians approve of the governor's endlessly-attacked handling of the pandemic, which has been his signature leadership issue. I don't believe for a second that DeSantis will win in November by anything close to 16-to-24 points. It's still Florida. Democrats will 'come home.' But if the governor pulls in a share of the vote that's closer to his approval rating, a victory in the high single digits -- or perhaps cracking double digits, if everything breaks right -- seems well within the realm of possibility. And as of right now, things do appear to be generally breaking bad for the Democrats:
Quinnipiac poll: Joe Biden's job approval drops four net points to 36-55 among all adults (was 38-53).
— The Wokest Numbersmuncher (@NumbersMuncher) March 30, 2022
Approval on the economy holds steady at a very low 34-58.
Inflation is the top concern for Americans at 30% with the invasion of Ukraine (14%) and immigration (9%) behind it.
Harvard/Harris poll: Joe Biden job approval ticks up one point to 39-55 (was 38-55) and Republicans increased their lead over Democrats to six points on the Generic Ballot 53-47 (was 51-49).
— The Wokest Numbersmuncher (@NumbersMuncher) March 29, 2022
Independents choose Republicans by 18 points, 59-41.
Brutal numbers for Democrats.
NEW Against the Grain: “Rural Voters Playing Outsized Role in Battleground House Races”
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) March 30, 2022
“Over half of this year’s toss-up races are in districts w/ a sizable rural constituency. That reality makes holding the House even more challenging for Democrats.”https://t.co/pSZGp2qkm4
The House Democrats’ main political action committee is spending nearly $102 million to reserve advertising spots in 50 media markets, from Bangor, Maine, to San Diego, Calif., a battlefield that is considerably larger and more expensive than it was in the past two congressional elections. The breadth of the congressional map reveals the scope of Democrats’ worries about holding seats in midterm elections. Areas once considered safe, like South Texas, greater Pittsburgh and Seattle will see Democratic advertising...Republican counterpart, Dan Conston of the Congressional Leadership Fund, said the huge expenditure is a sign of weakness and an admission that inflation, rising crime rates and an unpopular Democratic president will not only cost Democrats swing districts but also make some districts President Biden won handily fiercely competitive. “I think they believe they’ve already lost the majority,” he said. “This is about staving off losses in some deep blue, traditionally Democratic areas.”
I'll leave you with DeSantis torching the suits at Woke Disney over its (utterly hypocritical) statement on the recently-signed parental rights bill in Florida:
?? DeSantis shoots across @Disney's bow:
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) March 30, 2022
"They overstepped their bounds...They do not run this state...California corporate executives...think that whatever they want in Florida, they get. That may have been true in the past. That is not true now."https://t.co/3c2ZFAwsUF
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