My bet all along was that this Democratic Congress would pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill, then move on to a pared-down "reconciliation" spending package that Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema could stomach. The progressives would whine about it not being sufficiently mammoth in scope, but leadership would call it transformative – and it would be breathtakingly expensive in the scheme of things. There was always a non-zero chance that the "Build Back Better" part of the equation would falter and disintegrate, but my guess was that the Democrats would ultimately settle on something. That eventuality is still in the offing, but for the first time in this saga, I now suspect the spending spree is more likely to die than not. Why? There were multiple reports yesterday that Senate Democrats had at last determined that they'd banged into the same brick wall for the final time this year, opting to indefinitely punt BBB into 2022 and move on to another priority (which is perhaps even more unlikely to pass):
Hearing from multiple sources on the Hill that BBB is definitely shelved for 2021. Looking for public confirmation from leadership. https://t.co/EwuefsOf3R
— Bret Baier (@BretBaier) December 15, 2021
NBC News: Senate expected to shelve Build Back Better bill, moving forward aggressively now on voting rights
— Jesse Rodriguez (@JesseRodriguez) December 15, 2021
NEW - @Sen_JoeManchin was overheard on Senate floor in past vote series saying he was a no on motion to proceed to BBB, per source familiar
— John Bresnahan (@bresreports) December 15, 2021
Is it conceivable that inflation will come down, private negotiations with holdouts will bear fruit in the coming months, and BBB 2.0 will cross the finish line mid-election year? Sure. But there's probably a greater chance that inflation persists to enough of an extent that Manchin et al won't be terribly enthusiastic about reopening these battle scars, especially because the public is not clamoring for this bill. We recently reviewed polling data showing majority public opposition to the plan, particularly among independents, and the numbers are even worse in West Virginia. And inflation is plainly viewed as a clear and present danger to the economy, with very low excitement about a new round of massive spending that will add $3 trillion to deficits over the next decade:
Has inflation caused you financial hardship in the last 6 months?
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) December 15, 2021
Yes 67
No 31
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Republicans lead by four points on the 2022 ballot in the same poll. I'm not prepared to declare BBB DOA just yet, but the odds are stacked against it getting resurrected in the middle of an election year, especially if economic conditions remain daunting. If it's dead, that's an extraordinary development, and the country will have dodged an exorbitantly expensive bullet on several fronts. But that failure would be a very bitter pill to swallow for various coalitions among congressional Democrats:
Also, if BBB is dead, it’s the progs’ nightmare fulfilled. They hold BIF hostage, then relent and pass it, then BBB bites the dust — would be the precise outcome they were trying to avoid. https://t.co/qQdIykjRYf
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 15, 2021
"Moderates" will be angry that they climbed out onto a limb, voted for controversial and assailable proposals, then the limb got sawed off anyway, with no new 'accomplishment' to show for it. Progressives will fume that the whole reason they held BIF hostage was because they feared Manchin doing exactly what he appears to have done to BBB. Pelosi will have effectively double-crossed the leftists while hanging the ostensible moderates out to dry. If that happens, will she maintain her self-awarded crown as "master legislator"? The NRCC seems eager to remind voters of the toxic provisions every single House Democrat (with one exception) voted for, on the record. Meanwhile, to distract their irate base from this BBB failure, Democrats will push more unrealistic lunacy, like killing the filibuster to nationalize elections in a constitutionally-suspect power grab (Sinema has already reiterated her opposition to changing the filibuster) and banana republic-style court-packing schemes:
Sen. Elizabeth Warren says she now supports adding at least 4 seats to the Supreme Court and will co-sponsor the Judiciary Act, a bill that would do just that.
— Jennifer Bendery (@jbendery) December 15, 2021
The NRCC got a big gift when House Democrats lined up against the wall and voted for BBB. The NRSC may have gotten a gift when the polarizing and abrasive Warren decided to vocally embrace adding seats to SCOTUS. This idea is unpopular and so radical that even Biden's commission refused to entertain it. And the brazenness of the politicized math behind it (add four sears for a 7-6 liberal majority – subtle! ) is impossible to miss. It'll be a fundraising tool and a turnout motivator for the GOP. Parting thought: The louder the tantrum, the likelier it is that BBB is cooked.
UPDATE – Could a hugely pared down BBB, to the point that it's not really BBB anymore, be in the realm of possibility down the line? Maybe. I'd ask if progressives would revolt and torpedo it, but they always fall in line at the end of the day:
Prophecy. pic.twitter.com/S2yFO1WcNl
— John McCormack (@McCormackJohn) December 16, 2021
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