Actor Matthew McConaughey – a potential X-factor – is out. So the 2022 gubernatorial race is likely set, though not yet officially so. In all likelihood, the contest will feature Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott versus former Democratic Congressman and failed Senate and presidential candidate Beto O'Rourke. Robert Francis O'Rourke gave Sen. Ted Cruz a scare in the blue-tinted 2018 cycle, though Cruz ended up prevailing by more than 200,000 votes statewide. Then, after swearing he wouldn't run for president in 2020 – his family "could not survive it," he said – he...ran for president in 2020, which was met with embarrassing fanfare. It did not go well. But in the process, O'Rourke embraced a hard-left platform, representing a break from his previous Texas image. Now, he wants to return to the Lone Star State, probably hoping that his latest campaign can make voters forget the things he said on the national stage. It will be Republicans' task to make sure that everyone remembers.
As the calendar is on the brink of flipping to the election year, a new Quinnipiac poll of Texans suggests that Abbott is a fairly heavy favorite for re-election. Quinnipiac has drastically overestimated Democrats' standing in some high-profile races in recent years, so it's hard to read these results as anything other than very rough news for Beto and friends:
Quinnipiac poll of Texas-Gov has:
— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) December 8, 2021
Greg Abbott (R) 52
Beto O'Rourke (D) 37
Abbott job approval: 53/41
Biden job approval: 32/64
O'Rourke favorability: 36/47
Dec. 2-6, 1224 RVs, MoE +/- 2.8%https://t.co/l4szbcQwR2
Biden is sitting at 32 percent approval in Texas, more than 20 points lower than Abbott. I think what every conservative should communicate is that what Beto truly needs to overcome these headwinds (including his own underwater by double-digits personal favorability) is tons and tons of cash from coastal liberals. At the expense of other Democrats. Make a statement in Texas, guys. It's true that Beto was also far behind Cruz in early polling a few years back. But Abbott isn't Cruz, and 2022 isn't 2018. Pay no need to obstacles such as Abbott leading Beto on every issue polled, from the economy (+28) to guns (+27) to the border (+25) to election laws (+15) to COVID (+15) to abortion (+8). Speaking of abortion, Texas' heartbeat law, loathed by the media, has now been in effect for weeks, and the man who signed it is leading his top challenger on the issue. I think this is an observation to which strategists and pundits on both sides should pay attention:
We can’t assume how abortion will play in ‘22. @QuinnipiacPoll in TX finds Border top issue (33%), abortion way down at 9%. Among R’s 58% pick Border as top issue. Among D’s, 15% pick abortion as a top issue. In other words, border more motivating for R’s than abortion for Ds.
— Amy Walter (@amyewalter) December 8, 2021
The media is much more invested in unrestricted abortion-on-demand than most voters are, and the journalist class is generally far to the left of most voters on the issue (as is the Democratic Party) – even as most voters are also to the left of the GOP platform. I offered some thoughts on this dynamic HERE. But the notion that the Dobbs case will definitely and dramatically swing the 2022 election is a theory, and hardly a lock. Indeed, some Democrats are reconciling themselves to that reality. I'll leave you with this amusing wish-casting from a California newspaper:
Can Beto O’Rourke show Democrats how to lose less badly in rural America? (via @melmason) https://t.co/DLL020B5IW
— LA Times CA Politics (@LATpoliticsCA) December 9, 2021
O'Rourke came out in favor of gun confiscation and governmental punishment of churches that don't support gay marriage when he ran for president. Sounds like a good recipe for "losing less badly in rural America," doesn't it?
