National vs. State Polls: Clinton Will Cruise, or is One State Away From Losing

Posted: Nov 08, 2016 1:30 PM

The final national polls are all in, and the consensus seems to be that Hillary Clinton is en route to a modest victory tonight. The last batch of numbers from CBS News, Fox News, YouGov, NBC/WSJ, and Washington Post/ABC all peg her lead at four points (while a handful have Trump ahead, or Clinton leading by a larger margin). If recent history is any guide, the last outfit on that list could be telling. With the exception of 2000, that particular pollster has demonstrated an uncanny knack for basically nailing the eventual outcome in its final survey prior to the election:

That's a damn good track record, and Allahpundit rightly notes that 2000's misfire could easily have been attributable to the last minute oppo dump about George W. Bush's DUI.  But if Hillary is really up by four points nationally, she should have a fair amount of breathing room in the electoral college math.  Does she?  Ehhhhh, not if this is all correct:

As McCormack notes in that tweet -- and Leah mentioned this morning -- if everything you see there turns out to be accurate, Trump is just four electoral votes shy of winning the presidency. And he's down by less than a point in New Hampshire, home to...exactly four electoral votes.  On the flip side, if Clinton's vaunted ground game helps push her over the top in Nevada and Florida, she cruises to a 300+ electoral vote victory.  As we've explained on a number of occasions, the data points to a Clinton win, because Trump's hill is so steep.  There are counter-theories as to why the data may be wrong, many focusing on some variation of the polls "missing" millions of Trump supporters.  We'll see which argument is vindicated by the actual results in a few hours.  I'll leave you with this quick clip from my election preview segment on Fox this morning.  Two big factors suggest that 2016 should be ripe for a 'change election' outcome.  Along with Hillary Clinton's deep unpopularity, these are part of the reason why Trump is still in this thing: