It's an outlier, in that Hillary hits the magic number 50 in Monmouth's last nationwide survey of the cycle; something she hasn't done in a single four-way national poll since a crazy AP survey (Clinton +14) in late-ish October. Beyond that point, she's held a consistent lead -- almost always bouncing around between 44 and 48 percent support, with Trump generally in the upper 30's to mid-40's. This one looks different, apparently due to a small Hillary surge among late-breaking voters:
BREAKING: National likely voters— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) November 7, 2016
- 4% changed mind past 10 days b/c of recent newshttps://t.co/AY2M87xhsc
They're not suddenly falling in love with Hillary, however. Her favorability rating in the poll is an atrocious (37/54), with Trump faring slightly worse at (34/55). Among the general electorate, 27 percent of respondents say they're satisfied with Donald Trump as the GOP nominee, with fully two-thirds wishing the party had nominated someone else. Barely a third are satisfied with Clinton as the Democratic pick. In short, Americans are disenchanted with their options this year. Justin wrote earlier about the IBD/TIPP poll showing Trump slightly ahead, which could be a big deal because according to one metric, that was the most accurate pollster four years ago. By another measure, the most on-point mainstream pollsters in 2012 were Reuters/Ipsos and YouGov. Their final numbers of this cycle? Hillary up four and three, respectively, in line with where several other national pollsters are landing (Bloomberg, Fox News, CBS, NBC/WSJ, ABC/WaPo). We'll know who's right soon enough. As I said in my predictions post earlier, what matters more than the national trends -- as useful as they can be -- are statewide polling results. Have we gleaned anything new in the last 24 hours or so?
Iowa: Looking fairly solid for Trump, despite a single survey giving Clinton a one-point edge.
North Carolina: As close as they come. A fresh NYT/Sienna poll measures an exact tie, with Richard Burr up one in the Senate race. Total jump ball. Quinnipiac's final survey gives Clinton a two-point lead, with the Senate contest tied.
Florida: Of the three nonpartisan polls taken in November, Hillary is barely ahead or tied. Two GOP pollsters give Trump a small edge. The Q-poll shows Rubio hitting the 50 mark and leading by seven points. His average lead is smaller, just shy of four points.
Ohio: Trump hasn't trailed in a single public poll of the Buckeye State since mid-October, building an average lead of 3.5 points -- which for some reason does not include this data point:
Columbus Dispatch poll (OH):— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 7, 2016
This survey basically nailed the 2012 outcome there, but no other polling has her ahead.
In case you're curious, the Dispatch survey more or less nailed Ohio's 2012 results. That may be a cause for concern in Trumpworld, but here's a countervailing piece of information that is definitely welcome news to the GOP:
Democratic early-vote turnout in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, down 31% from 2012 levels pic.twitter.com/Qyb2Mtd1r6— Reid J. Epstein (@reidepstein) November 7, 2016
Trump likely needs to sweep that board, then tack on additional recent / traditional blue states. He holds a tiny RCP average lead in Nevada, where (if you read between the lines) even the state GOP seems to think he's cooked, and has fallen ever so slightly behind in New Hampshire, where he has momentum. Aside from that, Team Trump needs to hope that the public polling is several points off in another Obama-won state. Maybe Pennsylvania? Your guess might be as good as the Trump campaign's. They've reportedly stiffed one of their top internal pollsters and have been plotting final moves based -- at least partially -- on 270toWin scenarios:
I'll leave you with another prediction. One day more: