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Tipsheet

She's Tanking: Trump Leads in Ohio, Florida in New CNN Polls

BREAKING -- Corrupt, secretive liar in free fall against most unpopular major party nominee of all time.  Amazing:

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Here's the CNN link.  Note the jaw-dropping numbers among younger voters.  Trump should send flowers to Gary Johnson, and use his giant megaphone to join calls for the former New Mexico Governor to be included on the debate stage:

With eight weeks to go before Election Day, Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over Hillary Clinton in Ohio and the two are locked in a near-even contest in Florida, according to new CNN/ORC polls in the two critical battleground states. Among likely voters in Ohio, Trump stands at 46% to Clinton's 41%, with 8% behind Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2% behind Green Party nominee Jill Stein. In Florida, likely voters split 47% for Trump to 44% for Clinton, within the poll's 3.5 percentage point margin of error, and with 6% behind Johnson and 1% backing Stein...Younger voters, who were a key driver of President Barack Obama's support in both 2008 and 2012, are not lining up as solidly behind Clinton in either state, and they are less likely than older voters to make it through a likely voter screen at this point in the campaign, suggesting they are less enthusiastic about voting in this election. In Florida, Clinton tops Trump by 6 points among those under age 45 who are likely to turn out in November, and in Ohio, Clinton and Trump are about even among this group. Obama carried this group by double-digits in 2012 in both Florida and Ohio. One big difference this time between younger and older voters: Support for Gary Johnson. In both states, Johnson reaches double-digits among those voters under age 45 who say they are likely to turn out, while he gets low-single-digit support among older voters.
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Another big factor? Independents:

Both candidates have the support of roughly 9 in 10 of their own partisans in each state, but Clinton trails Trump among independent voters in both places, with Trump up 10 points among independents likely to vote in Florida and 8 points in Ohio.

Trump is still losing badly among nonwhite voters, but his improved competitiveness among the under-45 crowd and independent voters is largely driven by one thing: Hillary Clinton. Her unfavorability is on par with Trump's in Florida, and worse in Ohio.  And can we talk about those Senate numbers for a moment?  Marco Rubio up 11 points?  Rob Portman up 21 points?  That second data point adds credence to the Bloomberg poll we wrote about yesterday, which showed Trump up in Ohio, and Portman ahead by 17.  Skeptics of that poll argued the sample was off, and that Portman's lead was just too big to be believed.  And then CNN dropped these numbers on their heads.  Let's face it:  Based on polling averages and trends alone, if the election were held tomorrow, Republicans would hold the House and Senate -- and Donald Trump would have a not-insignificant chance of pulling the upset.  Caveats: There are almost two months to go, the debates could be decisive, there are reported ground game disparities, etc.  So yes, obstacles remain, but consider this tweet from the Weekly Standard's John McCormack:

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That map didn't factor in the lone Colorado poll that gave Trump a two-point lead yesterday, which would actually tip this hypothetical scenario to the GOP nominee. Despite Hillary's long-term unpopularity in Colorado, I still think that Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are the more likely flip opportunities for Trump, based on demographics.  Keep in mind that despite clear movement in his direction, Hillary still owns RCP polling average leads in North Carolina and Pennsylvania (he needs both of those), plus places like Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire.  And she's still slightly ahead nationally.  But if his momentum in Florida and Ohio -- where he's edged into the lead in RCP's average -- keeps up, you'll see Democrats really start to freak out if Pennsylvania starts to tip.  For now, the blue firewall is holding, but it's looking a lot weaker than it has all cycle.  Oh, to be a fly on the wall at Hillary's Brooklyn headquarters right now.  I'll leave you with this:

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