Oh Boy: New Polls Show Hillary Trailing in Ohio, Nevada, Colorado

Posted: Sep 14, 2016 2:16 PM

Remember what I said yesterday about waiting to see how Hillary's horrible weekend might get priced into upcoming polling? Well, here's a trio of brand new polls out of key battleground states showing Trump pulling ahead of Hillary Clinton. Bloomberg's Ohio survey was in the field for four days, three of which were after her "deplorables" remark, and one-and-a-half of which were post-health incident. The result? The Republican is up five points, in both the one-on-one and four-way contests:

You read that right: She's in the 30's. Perhaps because her favorable rating (-17) in Buckeyeland is significantly worse than Donald Trump's (-7), according to these numbers. Liberal poll watchers are spooked, writing this result off as "click bait," and casting some doubt on its veracity while piling on lots of reassuring context.  Our colleague Ed Morrissey examines the partisan breakdown of this particular poll and wonders if it's too GOP-heavy: "The polling sample might be an issue here, but that depends on what kind of turnout we can expect from Ohio.  The sample here is R+4 with a D/R/I of 29/33/34. That’s similar to 2014, where Ohio turnout was 32/36/32, but somewhat off from the D+7 2012 presidential cycle of 38/31/31," he writes.  On the other hand, he notes that this survey's Senate race result (Portman up...17 points) isn't terribly far off from other recent polling outcomes; Portman's RCP average lead was already in the double digits before this new data point dropped.  Two of the last three polls in the state show Trump in the lead.  Up next, Nevada:

This one was in the field September 11-13, so it is likely picking up some public reaction to Hillary's collapse -- although that story has been developing and shifting for days. Trump is definitely quite competitive in the Silver State, as this data represents a six-point shift in his favor since Monmouth's July poll.  Plus, it's yet another public survey showing Joe Heck leading his Democratic opponent in the race for Harry Reid's soon-to-be-vacant Senate seat. Winning that contest would significantly improve the GOP's chances of holding its majority.  And finally...Colorado?

A Reuters/Ipsos survey released this week gave Trump a narrow edge in a two-way race, 43 percent to 41 percent — his first lead in Colorado in the 2016 election. It follows two other recent polls showing the presidential race as a dead heat or within 5 percentage points. For months, Clinton held a definitive, often double-digit lead in Colorado, and polling averages still give her the upper hand. But Republicans are sensing momentum here, and Trump announced Tuesday he will hold a rally Saturday in Colorado Springs...Republican pollster David Flaherty at Magellan Strategies conducted a Aug. 29-31 poll that showed Clinton with a 41 percent to 36 percent lead among likely voters in a four-way race, just outside the 4.4 percentage point margin of error. But he cautions against Trump’s camp getting too optimistic. “Trump is not gaining in momentum or support. Gary Johnson is,” he said, referring to the Libertarian candidate for president, who is getting significant support in Colorado.

The Reuters poll is a clear outlier for now, but Clinton's once-large advantage in the state has been shriveling in other surveys, too. She's tanking, but as you can read above, Trump isn't gaining. The X-factor: Libertarian Gary Johnson, whose increased support is helping Trump.  If places like Colorado and Virginia are being put back into play, even if they're still reaches for Trump, that's very bad news for Team Hillary.  Their candidate has been bruised and battered by weeks of negative news cycles -- and we still haven't seen the "health effect" factor take full effect on public opinion just yet.  I'm not saying it's time for Hillary to start panicking, but today's "look over there!" tweet storm doesn't seem like a confident candidate's move: