Back in September, Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University, predicted that Donald Trump would win the election. The forecast wouldn't have been all that shocking if Lichtman hadn’t also correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984.
In the following weeks, Trump’s tax returns were leaked, the Hollywood Access tape came out, and multiple women came forward accusing Trump of sexual assault. Despite all this, Lichtman stuck to his initial prediction—and good thing or else he would've broken his 32-year streak.
In September, Lichtman explained his unique prediction system to the Washington Post. The professor uses a historically-based system of 13 true/false statements, which he calls the “Keys to the White House”. If six or more of the 13 keys are false, then the party currently holding office loses. If fewer than six are false, then the party in power will get reelected. At the time, Lichtman’s system was turning out six false statements, pointing to a Trump victory.
During that same interview, Lichtman made another prediction that the Washington Post left out in the original article: Trump will make it to the White House, but he’ll also be impeached by a Republican Congress.
“I'm going to make another prediction,” he said. “This one is not based on a system; it's just my gut. They don't want Trump as president, because they can't control him. He's unpredictable. They'd love to have Pence - an absolutely down-the-line, conservative, controllable Republican. And I'm quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook.”
Lichtman hasn’t been wrong yet. Maybe this will be his first.
