A Numbers Game

Posted: Nov 05, 2012 8:47 AM

One of the tough things about being a conservative is that one is very aware of one's own biases -- because they aren't shared by the vast majority of the media universe. Although that's ultimately a gift (because it helps Republicans avoid the insularity and parochialism that too often afflicts the left) it can be taxing on a day like today, when the waiting effectively begins.

As I see it, here's where the race stands.  Everyone knows that Obama's numbers will be significantly lower than they were in 2008.  Everyone knows Romney's numbers will be significantly higher than McCain's were in 2008.  The question, then, is one of margin.  Early voting -- where the President is expected to lead -- will probably show him in the lead; the issue is whether he will lead by enough to overcome the Romney votes that will come in tomorrow. That's what we're waiting to learn.

The fact that Rasmussen has Republicans up 1 again from a tie the last couple of days shows that the "Sandy bump" Obama enjoyed is wearing off.  Will it matter? Who knows?

Two pieces I have found informative are as follows:

Josh Jordan at NRO explaining how Romney wins tomorrow.

Major Garrett's piece at National Journal, describing the vote calculations and conclusions emanating from both campaigns.

Hang in there . . . and make sure every Romney supporter you know has a ride to the polls!