The WaPo's Chris Cillizza notes polling data suggesting that the composition of the midterm electorate will be older and whiter than the 2008 electorate -- and that this spells trouble for the Democrats because the majority of white voters are holding the President in pretty profound disfavor. From Cillizza's piece:
One senior strategist, speaking candidly about his concerns on the condition of anonymity, noted that white voters made up 79 percent of the 2006 midterm electorate, while they made up 74 percent of the 2008 vote. If the white percentage returns to its 2006 level, that means there will be 3 million more white voters than if it stayed at its 2008 levels. That scenario, said the source, "would generate massive losses" for House and Senate Democrats in November because of Obama's standing with that demographic.
At first blush, this sounds like great news for the GOP, right? Well, maybe, but it's bad news for America. Read the rest:
To avoid such losses, the Democratic National Committee has committed to spending tens of millions of dollars to re-create (or come somewhere near re-creating) the 2008 election model, in which Democrats relied heavily on higher-than-normal turnout from young people and strong support from African American and Hispanic voters.
So why is this bad news for America? Because of the tactics that the Dems' strategy will necessitate. After all, they can't run on their record, which is dismal. So they've got to convince African American, Hispanic and young voters that Republicans would be worse than they are -- and do so effectively enough to drive them to the polls.
That suggests that the race card will be dealt, and from the bottom of the deck. Expect, over the next few months, for every racially or ethnically sensitive issue to be exploited with minimum concern for the fabric of the country. Get ready to hear how those who support enforcement of American immigration laws hate Latinos, or how Republicans are otherwise prepared to oppress African Americans.
The whole phenomenon may turn out to be just be one big, ironic example of how the tenure of our first "post racial" President creates more racial division in America than it heals.
Oh, and don't expect the President to set a decent example, nothwithstanding his 2008 campaign-era happy talk. He's already hard at work misleading the public and disparaging the GOP in an effort to attract Hispanic voters.
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