Maine Democrats are having a rough go of it. Not only are they trying to run Graham Platner for Senate, but their congressional efforts in the Pine Tree State also aren't going well, either.
In ME-02, incumbent Congressman Jared Golden, who is not seeking reelection, was challenged by Matt Dunlap, Maine's State Auditor. Dunlap entered the race despite warnings from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), Democrats in Congress, and Democrat strategists that there was no path to victory without Golden on the ballot.
In October 2025, a source close to the DCCC raised concerns, noting that not making Golden the nominee "could risk the seat," and Golden himself said that Republican Paul LePage could beat Dunlap if they were the nominees this November. That same month, political analyst Drew Savicki slammed Dunlap's campaign, calling the primary against Golden 'shameful' and noting that "Golden is the only Democrat who can hold that seat."
Matt Dunlap's primary against Jared Golden is shameful and anybody working for him should be permanently blacklisted from Democratic politics. Golden is the only Democrat who can hold that seat.
— Drew Savicki (@DrewSav) October 6, 2025
Democratic strategist Mike Nellis told The Bulwark that the party was "not going to do better than Jared Golden" in Maine. "I want people to be practical and strategic about primaries and where we improve in the party," he added.
The DCCC's concerns persisted, with NOTUS reporting that Maine Democrats warned Dunlap his campaign would endanger the party's chances of regaining the majority in the midterms.
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The district voted for President Donald Trump by 9 points in 2024 and is widely considered one of the GOP’s best pickup opportunities next year. Golden, a three-term incumbent and former co-chair of the party’s moderate Blue Dog Coalition, won reelection by fewer than 3,000 votes in 2024, significantly overperforming the top of the party’s presidential ticket.
The district’s Republican lean has made national Democrats concerned that if Golden loses the primary, the party will lose the seat in the general election. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the House Democrats’ campaign arm, has warned both Dunlap and Maine Democratic leadership that if Golden isn’t the nominee, it could jeopardize national investment in the race and endanger the party’s chances of winning the majority, according to a source familiar with the situation.
Bulwark podcaster Tim Miller even said that Democrats were risking ME-02 with Dunlap's primary of Golden, noting that Golden has "demonstrated he can win working-class MAGA votes over four terms."
An underappreciated Maine subplot is that the Dems are risking losing a House seat in a Trump district bc the state auditor is primarying Jared Golden, a center-left Marine vet with tattoos (no totenkopfs) who has demonstrated he can win working class MAGA votes over 4 terms. https://t.co/SQQpA7qIGN
— Tim Miller (@Timodc) October 23, 2025
Adam Carlson, founding partner of Zenith Polls, said Golden is "the only Dem" who could win that district.
Golden is the only Dem that can conceivably win that district
— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) October 29, 2025
Congressional Rep. Jake Auchincloss of Massachusetts also pushed for Golden to be the nominee, saying Golden is the only Democrat in America who has won in a district that broke for President Trump three times.
If you care about a House majority, you help those on the frontlines of that fight - not tear them down. @golden4congress is the only Democrat in America who has won in a Trump x3 district. Any Democrat who tries to trip him up as he sprints into the general election is helping… https://t.co/sLeRhi0Kbw
— Jake Auchincloss (@JakeAuch) October 6, 2025
Lakshya Jain, another political data analyst, said the election was hard to win after Golden announced he wouldn't be seeking reelection.
Mark that as a seat that's now much, much harder for Democrats to win. Since assuming office after his 2018 win, Jared Golden has consistently been one of the strongest Democrats in Congress. He was favored in 2026 too.
— Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) November 5, 2025
Incredibly bad news for them. https://t.co/pKvFKZur10 pic.twitter.com/u7QTOmEhJp
"Mark that as a seat that's now much, much harder for Democrats to win. Since assuming office after his 2018 win, Jared Golden has consistently been one of the strongest Democrats in Congress. He was favored in 2026 too," Jain wrote. "Incredibly bad news for them."
The DCCC had a plan, of course. They handpicked State Senator Joe Baldacci to replace Golden, calling him a "top-tier candidate" and noting he'd never lost an election while overperforming Democrats up and down the ballot.
Unfortunately, Dunlap knocked Baldacci out of the race after the ranked-choice primary, and the Democrats are now doubling down on the doomsday messaging.
The aforementioned Adam Carlson said after the primary that ME-02 is now 'off the board' for Democrats.
Welp that probably takes ME-02 off the board for Democrats https://t.co/dPKSoNDHjB
— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) June 19, 2026
That sentiment was echoed by VoteHub Election Analysis Fellow Ellis Bates, who said Democrats face a "steeper hill" to hold onto the seat in a Trump-heavy district.
"Dunlap, one of three progressive options in the race, defeated DCCC-backed Baldacci, who was widely viewed as the most electable candidate," Bates wrote.
Dunlap, one of three progressive options in the race, defeated DCCC-backed Baldacci, who was widely viewed as the most electable candidate.
— Ellis Bates (@ElliscbIV) June 19, 2026
Democrats now face a steeper hill to hold this Trump +9 seat. https://t.co/NvxzkEqtUq
Matt Yglesias called the primary outcome "terrible."
Terrible outcome here, the people who got mad at Jared Golden and drove him from office aren’t going to like Paul LePage more. https://t.co/Chvhgi3IsY
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) June 19, 2026
Drew Savicki said Dunlap's win takes ME-02 "off the board entirely."
"LePage vs. Baldacci would have been a tossup," Savicki wrote. "Dunlap is far too liberal for such a culturally conservative district."
Matt Dunlap unfortunately likely takes ME-2 off the board entirely. LePage vs Baldacci would have been a tossup. Dunlap is far too liberal for such a culturally conservative district.
— Drew Savicki (@DrewSav) June 19, 2026
Axios reported a senior House Democrat said that ME-02 is "probably lost."
A senior House Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity to offer candid analysis on the race, told Axios the seat is "probably lost."
Holding it, they said, "was going to be tough anyway without Jared."
Despite this, the DCCC signaled its support for Dunlap, but only did so a full day after the primary race was called, and then only in a memo, writing:
In one of the most competitive seats in the country, Mainers in the Second District have a stark choice this November: Matt Dunlap, a lifelong Mainer who has dedicated his career to standing up for working families ...
It's worth noting here that Dunlap's position as State Auditor is not an elected position in Maine, despite the DCCC's memo saying Dunlap "won statewide office twice."
The DCCC's new memo on ME-02 notes that Matt Dunlap has "won statewide office twice"
— James Downs (@jamesd0wns) June 23, 2026
Both secretary of state and auditor in Maine, however, are selected by the legislature.
Only governor and senators are elected statewide pic.twitter.com/8lhERMn4nL
This is absolutely good news for Republicans in Maine. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has polling showing Dunlap trailing Paul LePage by 10 points and that Dunlap's friend and fellow Democrat Graham Platner is losing the district by 11 points. This confirms the Democrats' prior warnings about a Dunlap campaign.
"National Democrats have failed miserably in this district not once, but twice," said NRCC Spokeswoman Maureen O'Toole. "They lost their incumbent, and now they've lost their hand-picked replacement and are stuck with a freak who embraces a Nazi-loving abuser. Paul LePage will flip this seat red in November.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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