Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett (TX-30) downplayed Senate candidate James Talarico’s chances of winning his election against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
During an interview with NBC News’ Sahil Kapur, she didn’t seem confident that Talarico could be the one to move Texas closer to blue.
“When I look at the money, if Republicans start spending money in Texas, then I’ll be convinced,” she said. “But right now, national Republicans decided they wanted to dump money into North Carolina, as well as Georgia. That’s where they’re fighting, and national Democrats have not decided to dump money into Texas either… I look at: where does the NRSC stand? Where does DSCC stand?”
Right now, neither one are investing, which tells me that their internals are saying the same thing. So it looks like status quo. I won’t get on the ground to really start to feel it until maybe end of September, October, as I start to dig into which races I’m going to help out in, the races that I really feel like we can win.
Asked Jasmine Crockett last night in St. Louis if she thinks James Talarico can turn Texas blue this fall.
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) August 5, 2026
“I don't know,” she said.
She doesn’t buy the polls, saying they’ve historically overstated Democrats’ prospects in Texas. “I watch money.”
“When I look at the money, if… pic.twitter.com/rJLZOuKhlC
A new poll from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center shows Democrat James Talarico slightly ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the race. According to the Houston Press, the survey of 1,200 likely voters found Talarico leading by two percentage points.
Talarico received 47 percent support compared with Paxton’s 45 percent, with a margin of error of 2.83 percentage points. The poll was conducted from July 27 to 30, 2026. This is the third recent survey showing Talarico with a narrow edge in a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in more than three decades.
Meanwhile, questions have arisen about Talarico’s own voter registration after he accused Paxton of voter fraud. The Texas Tribune reported that records show Talarico listed his parents’ address on his voter registration in November 2021, bought a home in June 2022, and did not update his registration until September 2024.
📊 Texas Senate poll
— Polling Source (@PollingSource) August 5, 2026
James Talarico (D) 47%
Ken Paxton (R) 45%
Texas Southern University · LV · Jul 30 · n=1,200https://t.co/QsVAUb6fuK
The candidate voted in five elections using his parents’ address after buying the home. Talarico said at a Houston campaign event: “As our state’s attorney general, Ken Paxton has gone on a voter fraud witch hunt. Turns out, he was committing voter fraud the whole time, voting illegally in six elections in a row from the wrong address.”
Instead of outright denying the allegations, Talarico campaign spokesperson JT Ennis referred to the reports as “a lame attempt by Ken Paxton to deflect from his own hypocrisy and career of corruption.”
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