Late Entry? Trump May Benefit From Swath Of Undecided Voters, Could Further Tighten Swing State Races

Matt Vespa
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Posted: Nov 06, 2016 8:00 PM
Late Entry? Trump May Benefit From Swath Of Undecided Voters, Could Further Tighten Swing State Races

NBC News revealed their final poll today, with Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by four points 44/40. So, what can close the gap here? The polls can certainly be wrong; I know a lot of you have been clamoring about that for months. And it’s possible here since Trump might be motivating a silent two to three percent of the electorate into voting who haven’t in previous elections. It’s the shy Trump voters and the Undecideds who could put the billionaire over the top on Tuesday. From analysis by The Wall Street Journal, those who are on the fence lean Republican. Yet, as with any Election Day operation, it’s going to take an extensive and effective get out the vote operation, but it’s possible the races in swing states could be closer if Trump is able to mobilize these voters.

Some 30% of undecided voters call themselves Republicans, compared with 21% who call themselves Democrats, an analysis of Wall Street Journal/NBC News national polling shows.

In another sign of the Republican tilt of undecided voters, some 42% of those voters say they want the next Congress to be controlled by the GOP, suggesting that they are Republicans at heart. Some 35% say they prefer Democratic control.

[…]

The analysis looked at Journal/NBC News polls conducted in early- and mid-October, before the Federal Bureau of Investigation announced Friday that it was reviewing new evidence in connection with its investigation of Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server. The agency had closed the investigation this summer without recommending charges against Mrs. Clinton or her aides.

Some 8% of registered voters remain undecided in the presidential race, according to the analysis. With Mr. Trump trailing in most national polls, those voters could help Mr. Trump narrow the gap with Mrs. Clinton.

Should the profile of undecided voters in individual states mirror the national picture, Mr. Roberts said, “there’s a chance…that some of the battleground states could end up being closer than the polling today suggests, if these voters actually go out and vote.”

The election is in two days. We’ll find out if these folks come home. Hillary Clinton has dropped below 270 in the CNN electoral map, Real Clear Politics has put Pennsylvania in the toss-up column, and Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight said that Clinton’s electoral firewall is not robust. There’s a path for Trump to reach 270, but nothing can go wrong, like losing Florida. A loss in North Carolina could also signal a rough night for the Republican nominee. The one state where we should be trying to gauge these Undecideds is Pennsylvania. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he wins the election, though there still is an off-chance Clinton could eke out a win if she takes Nevada and Arizona. Arizona seems highly unlikely for Trump to lose that state.