Poll: Dem Advantage on Generic Ballot Slipped to Smallest Lead Yet Going Into Midterms

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Posted: Nov 06, 2018 6:15 AM
Poll: Dem Advantage on Generic Ballot Slipped to Smallest Lead Yet Going Into Midterms

The final Politico/Morning Star poll conducted days before the midterm elections showed Democrats’ advantage over Republicans slipping on the generic congressional ballot.

According to the survey, which was taken from October 30 to November 2, Democrats only had a 3-point advantage among registered voters—43 percent compared to the 40 percent who said they would vote for the Republican candidate. Eighteen percent of those polled were still undecided.

The last poll to ask this question from Politico/Morning Consult had Democrats with an 8-point advantage. That survey was taken from October 25-30.

The narrowing lead is consistent with a trend an ABC News/Washington Post poll and an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll also found in recent days. 

In an ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 1, Democrats led by 7 points among registered voters and 8 points among likely voters, down from 11 points and 13 points in October, respectively.

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, conducted Nov. 1-3, found Democrats ahead by 6 points among registered voters and 7 points among likely voters, down from 7 points and 9 points, respectively, in October. (Politico)

Turnout will be key in determining how well Democrats and Republicans perform, and the survey found that significantly more Democrats are "angry" about the midterm elections. But RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel has said that Republican enthusiasm is just as strong as Democrats'. 

"It's going to depend on voter turnout on Election Day," she told ABC News host George Stephanopoulos over the weekend. "Democrat enthusiasm is definitely there. We are seeing that in the early voting in all of these key House and Senate races, and Republicans have been matching, so literally Election Day voting is going to determine the balance of the House.”

The Politico/Morning Consult survey, conducted among 1,961 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points.