Editor’s note: "2016 Debate Watch" is a running, bi-weekly series.
Since our last and inaugural post there have been a few notable developments. Jeb Bush and Donald Trump have both announced they’re officially running for the GOP nomination. Meanwhile, Fox News has released some clarifying new debate rules regarding its network event on August 6. From their press release last week:
· [Candidates must] meet all U.S. Constitutional requirements; and
· Must announce and register a formal campaign for president; and
· Must file all necessary paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), and
· Must score 1% or higher in an average of the five most recent national polls, as recognized by FOX News leading up to August 4th at 5 PM/ET. Such polling must be conducted by major, nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques.
They must also all be polling in tenth place or higher, according to the network's five-poll calculation.* Candidates not polling in the top 10 will participate in a daytime, "second tier" debate that same day.
In any case, the following candidates are currently on the A-list:
(1) Jeb Bush: 10.8
(2) Scott Walker: 10.6
(3) Marco Rubio: 10.0
(4) Ben Carson: 9.4
(5) Mike Huckabee: 8.6
(6) Rand Paul: 8.2
(7) Ted Cruz: 7.0
(8) Chris Christie: 4.6
(9) Donald Trump: 3.6
(10) Rick Perry: 3.2
So Carly Fiorina, Rick Santorum, and Lindsey Graham still aren’t making the cut. We’ll see what happens in a few weeks.
*Fox News has not stipulated which national polling firms they will use to calculate their averages. Hence, I have used the following five polls as they are the most recent. You can review them in more detail here, here, here, here, and here.